000 AXNT20 KNHC 301754 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sat May 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall in Central America... A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing portions of southeast Mexico and Central America. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted across much of these waters, particularly N of 09N and E of 95W. Areas of thunderstorms have moved into portions of Central America from the NW part of Nicaragua northward to Southern Mexico. The gyre will move slowly northward, gradually encompassing much of Central America and southern Mexico over the next 24-48 hours. Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will create a dangerous situation for these areas with an extended period of active weather, and periods of heavy rainfall, through the weekend and into next week, especially over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. This will bring the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details. ...Broad low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean... A 1015 mb low pressure center is in the central Atlantic Ocean near 30N58W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N59W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted about 180 nm W and 140 nm E of the center. ASCAT data shows fresh east to southeast winds about 420 nm east of the center and north to northeast fresh to strong winds 200 nm in the northeast quadrant. Some development of this system is possible, and a subtropical depression may form tonight, as the low pressure center moves generally northward. The low pressure could become a short-lived subtropical depression while it moves northwestward over the central Atlantic. After that time, further development is not anticipated due to unfavorable environmental conditions. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please read the Tropical Weather Outlook, www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 81W, from 20N southward, moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection has increased from 17N along 81W westward to the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. showers are seen in the vicinity of the wave axis. The tropical wave will move across the western Caribbean through Sun. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, to 03N33W. The ITCZ continues from 03N33W to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen near the monsoon trough from 04N-09N between the coast of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea to 28W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen Along the ITCZ near the coast of Brazil from 02S-01N between 39W-49W, and scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms extending 450 nm north of the ITCZ near Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends from interior sections of Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is passing through central Alabama and southern Mississippi, to SE Louisiana. A surface trough extends from 25N95W to 18N94W in the western Gulf. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen about 100 nm from the trough axis. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is noted over the the central Gulf. ASCAT data indicates light to moderate winds across the basin. The weak front will move into the NE Gulf, then stall and dissipate in the E Gulf by early Tue. Winds and seas may increase over the SW Gulf on Mon through Wed as a broad low pressure develops over SE Mexico and N Central America. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about Heavy rainfall potential over Central America, during the next few days. Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the western Caribbean Sea. A cyclonic wind pattern remains over the eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen covering a broad area from the Lesser Antilles to Jamaica and the Windward Passage. The Pacific Monsoon trough extends from north of Colombia westward across Panama and Costa Rica into the Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of Colombia, from 12N southward between 73W to 79W. In the NW Caribbean, scattered moderate isolated strong convection are observed in the Gulf of Honduras. ASCAT data indicate the moderate trades across the central and eastern Caribbean and moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras west of 84W. Check out Special Features section above for more information about the tropical wave. A tropical wave south of W Cuba will move across W Caribbean through Sun with little impact. Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras early next week as broad low pressure forms over N Central America and S Mexico. Elsewhere winds and seas will remain tranquil through at least Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about the 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 30N58W. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. An upper level low is centered north of the basin near 28N59W in the Atlantic Ocean. At the surface, a 1015 mb low pressure is center is near 30N58W with a trough extending from 33N56W to 23N59W. A mid-level trough is noted in the southern Bahamas with a surface trough well depicted by the ASCAT. Surface trough extends from 24N69W to 20N70W. Scattered moderate convection is seen mainly about 200 nm east of the trough. Elsewhere east of the Lesser Antilles, an area of scattered showers is seen from 11N-19N Between 23W-59W. A 1029 mb high pressure extends into the eastern Atlantic. A ridge just north of the area will weaken by Sun ahead of a cold front moving south of 31N Sun night. The front will reach from Bermuda to S Florida on Mon afternoon, stall along 25N by Tue afternoon, and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front will pick up to moderate or strong on Mon and Tue. Quiescent conditions should prevail across the waters by Wed. $$ MTorres