000 AXNT20 KNHC 291030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall in Central America... A Central American Gyre will develop in the eastern North Pacific Ocean within the next couple of days. The gyre will move northward, toward Central America and southern Mexico, during the upcoming weekend. The gyre will push abundant moisture into parts of Central America through the weekend, and into the next week. Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America, especially from northern Costa Rica northward into southern Mexico. This will bring the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for the locations that receive the greatest amounts of rainfall, especially areas of mountainous terrain. Please read the bulletins and forecasts from your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 90 nm of the southern side of Hispaniola, between 70W and 76W between Cuba and Jamaica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, to 07N18W, to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W, to 05N37W and to 03N44W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 05N to 10N between 10W and 17W, within 360 nm to the south and southeast of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to strong is within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ, between 26W and 40W; and from 03N to 08N between 44W and 55W. Isolated moderate is from 10W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes through central Texas, southward, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 24N to 29N between 88W and 95W. A stationary front is along southern Louisiana, into the central and southern sections of Texas. An upper level trough passes through the Florida Panhandle to the southwestern corner of Florida. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate between 79W and 86W. The stationary front will drift into the northwest and north central Gulf of Mexico overnight, then stall and dissipate in the NW Gulf through Saturday. A second and reinforcing front will move into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night. The second cold front will weaken, as it drifts southward into the northeast Gulf of Mexico, through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about the heavy rainfall that is expected in Central America, during the next few days. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, continues to cover the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward. The upper level cyclonic wind flow and trough are the southern extensions of an Atlantic Ocean trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 60W and 70W. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and lingering showers, cover the Caribbean Sea from Jamaica westward. The current tropical wave, that is to the south of Haiti will continue moving across the western Caribbean Sea through Sunday. Widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected in the southwestern part of the Caribbean Sea, and in adjacent sections of Central America and South America, into the next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow in the Atlantic Ocean between 47W and 72W. A 1017 mb low pressure center is near 25N55W. A surface trough extends from 29N50W, through the 1017 mb low, to 20N61W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm to 720 nm northeast of the low, in the NE quadrant. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 240 nm to the north of the surface trough, and within 300 nm to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, in the Atlantic Ocean. Weak high pressure to the north of the area will move eastward on Sunday, in advance of a cold front moving off the NE Florida coast. The cold front will reach from Bermuda to Palm Beach Florida on Monday. The cold front will stall, and dissipate along 25N, through Tuesday night. $$ mt/dbm