000 AXNT20 KNHC 282255 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 655 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America Heavy Rainfall: A Central American Gyre will develop in the eastern North Pacific Ocean within the next couple days. The gyre will move northward, toward Central America and southern Mexico, during the upcoming weekend. The gyre will push abundant moisture into parts of Central America through the weekend, and into the next week. Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America, especially from northern Costa Rica northward into southern Mexico. This will bring the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for the locations that receive the greatest amounts of rainfall, especially for areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to forecasts from your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed over the central Caribbean along 71W south of 18N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Hispaniola and the surrounding waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 05N37W to 03N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ west of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is observed over the northern Gulf this evening, north of 26N and west of 84W. Note that locally higher winds and rough seas are likely in and near strong thunderstorms. A weak, nearly stationary front is analyzed across SW Louisiana and along the upper Texas coast. Outside of convective wind gusts, wind speeds remain gentle to moderate over much of the Gulf under a weak pressure pattern, with wave heights generally 2-4 ft. A weak cold front along the Texas coast will move into the northwest and north central Gulf through tonight, stall Fri, and dissipate over the northwest Gulf into Sat. A reinforcing front will move into the north central and northeast Gulf by late Sat, then weaken as it drifts southward over the northeast Gulf through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information about the heavy rainfall expected over Central America during the next few days. Scattered strong convection persists this evening over the SW Caribbean near the coasts of eastern Honduras and Nicaragua. This active monsoon trough is supported by a convectively coupled Kelvin wave nearing the region. Elsewhere, diurnal convection is noted over the Greater Antilles, aided by the passage of a tropical wave south of Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail over the southern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the basin. Seas are generally 4-6 ft within the central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. A tropical wave south of the Dominican Republic will reach the western Caribbean Fri. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over the southwest Caribbean and adjacent portions of Central and South America into next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A line of thunderstorms is moving off the east-central Florida coast this evening, accompanied by gusty winds and locally rough seas. A surface high pressure ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure near 37N59W southwestward to near the NW Bahamas. Farther east, 1016 mb low pressure near 23N55W is accompanied by a surface trough extending from 28N51W to 19N61W. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail north of 25N between 45W and 60W, with seas of 7-9 ft. A line of showers and thunderstorms is noted east of the trough, north of 22N. Moderate NE trades continue over the central and eastern Atlantic. Weak high pressure will persist north of the area through Sat, then shift east ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sun. Fresh NE winds will follow the front as it moves south, reaching from Bermuda to West Palm Beach, Florida by late Mon, then stalling and dissipating along 25N through late Tue. $$ B Reinhart