000 AXNT20 KNHC 281718 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America Heavy Rainfall: A Central American Gyre will develop in the eastern North Pacific Ocean by the end of the week. The gyre will move northward, toward Central America and southern Mexico, during the upcoming weekend. The gyre will push abundant moisture into parts of Central America by the end of the week, during the entire weekend, and into the next week. Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America, especially from northern Costa Rica northward, into southern Mexico. This will bring the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for the areas that receive the greatest amounts of rainfall. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts that come from your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from 18N southward and is moving W at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is seen across the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Showers and thunderstorms are also over the Caribbean from 16N-18N between 65W-70W. A tropical wave is along 92W from 21N southward, in the eastern Bay of Campeche, moving W at 10 knots. No significant convection is associated with this wave in the Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 06N30W to 04N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough and part of the ITCZ from 06N-08N between 15W- 24W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 04N- 07N between 27W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... Mid-level troughing continues to extend into the north Gulf. A line of thunderstorms is seen stretching from the Florida Panhandle to the central Gulf from 27N-29N between 85W-91W. Isolated thunderstorms are along the Florida coast, from 29N-30N and E of 85W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted across most of the Gulf with light winds in the northern Gulf. Seas range 3 to 4 ft. A weak cold front will move into the northwest and north central Gulf late today, stall Fri, and dissipate over the northwest Gulf into Sat. A reinforcing front will move into the north central and northeast Gulf by late Sat, then weaken as it drifts southward over the northeast Gulf through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section for more information about the heavy rainfall impacting Central America over the next few days. Numerous strong convection is adjacent to the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica from 10N-14N and W of 81W. This cluster of thunderstorms is relatively stationary. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 75W- 79W. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen in the Gulf of Honduras. Showers are noted in the southern portions of the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate trades are across the basin with seas ranging from 4 to 7 ft. A tropical wave near the Mona Passage will reach the western Caribbean Fri. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over the southwest Caribbean and adjacent portions of Central and South America into next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A line of thunderstorms is seen in the western Atlantic from 28N- 32N between 79W-80W. A 1016 mb low is analyzed near 21N58W with a trough along the low from 29N49W to 18N63W. Widespread scattered moderate convection is near seen from 19N-30N between 45W-68W. Moderate to fresh winds are on either side of the trough. Another trough is analyzed north of the Canary Islands from 33N24W to 28N21W. Showers are moving across the Canary Islands. Seas range 4 to 7 ft. Weak high pressure will persist north of the area through Sat, then shift east ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sun. Fresh NE winds will follow the front as it moves south, reaching from Bermuda to West Palm Beach Florida by late Mon. $$ AReinhart