000 AXNT20 KNHC 281030 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America Heavy Rainfall: A Central American Gyre will develop in the eastern North Pacific Ocean by the end of the week. The gyre will move northward, toward Central America and southern Mexico, during the upcoming weekend. The gyre will push abundant moisture into parts of Central America by the end of the week, during the entire weekend, and into the next week. Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America, especially from northern Costa Rica northward, into southern Mexico. This will bring the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for the areas that receive the greatest amounts of rainfall. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts that come from your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 66W, from 20N southward, moving west at 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 17N to 21N between 60W and 71W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N to 23N between 59W and 72W. A tropical wave is along 91W/92W from 21N southward, in the eastern Bay of Campeche, moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the areas from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in southern Mexico, to Guatemala, Belize, and Yucatan Peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 08N15W, to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 02N45W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 100 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 14W and 22W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 03N to 10N between 20W and 55W, and elsewhere from 10N southward from 15W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid- to upper level trough passes through the eastern half of Texas into the western Gulf of Mexico. Earlier scatterometer data depicted light to gentle winds in the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights generally were at 3 feet or less, based on recent buoy observations. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 28N southward. Scattered strong is in parts of south central Texas. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night. The front will then stall and dissipate through early Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about the Central America Gyre scenario that is expected for parts of Central America during the upcoming weekend. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and a few rain showers are to the west of a line that runs from NW Cuba to the coast of Colombia near 11N75W, including inland areas of Central America. Earlier precipitation has weakened, but lingering showers persist. An upper level ridge is along 82W/83W, and upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 70W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the southern part of an Atlantic Ocean trough that is north of 20N between 47W and 74W. The eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave will reach the western Caribbean Sea on Friday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected in the southwest Caribbean Sea and the adjacent parts of South and Central America during the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an upper level trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean north of 20N between 47W and 74W. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N50W to 24N51W to 21N56W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 180 nm ESE of the surface trough, from 20N to 25N between 47W and 54W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the rest of the waters from 18N to 20N between 50W and 61W. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and scattered rain showers cover the remainder of the area from 18N northward between 44W and 60W. Weak high pressure will build to the north of the area during the next few days. A cold front will move southward, to the east of Florida, on Monday. $$ mt/dbm