000 AXNT20 KNHC 280529 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central America Heavy Rainfall: A Central American Gyre will develop in the eastern North Pacific Ocean by the end of the week. The gyre will move northward, toward Central America and southern Mexico, during the upcoming weekend. The gyre will push abundant moisture into parts of Central America by the end of the week, during the entire weekend, and into the next week. Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America, especially from northern Costa Rica northward, into southern Mexico. This will bring the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for the areas that receive the greatest amounts of rainfall. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts that come from your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 17N to 21N between 61W and 70W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N to 23N between 60W and 70W. A tropical wave is along 90W/91W from 21N southward, in the Yucatan Peninsula, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the areas that are from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to Guatemala, Belize, and to the Yucatan Peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 05N30W, 03N40W, and to 02N45W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 100 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 15W and 20W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 03N to 10N between 20W and 60W, and elsewhere from 10N southward from 15W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A middle level to upper level trough passes through the eastern half of Texas into the western sections of the Gulf of Mexico. The dissipating cold front from six hours ago has disappeared from the 28/0000 UTC surface map analysis. Earlier scatterometer data depicted light to gentle winds in the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights generally were at 3 feet or less, based on recent buoy observations. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 28N southward. Numerous strong is in parts of south central Texas. The latest smoke analysis was showing that light smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico was lingering in the SW Gulf of Mexico. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night. The weak cold front will stall and dissipate through early Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about the Central America Gyre scenario that is being forecast for parts of Central America during the upcoming weekend. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and lingering rainshowers are in the waters that are to the west of the line that runs from NW Cuba to the coast of Colombia near 11N75W, including inland areas of Central America. Earlier scattered moderate to strong precipitation has weakened with time, still lingering also. An upper level ridge is along 82W/83W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 70W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is related to the southern end of the Atlantic Ocean area of cyclonic wind flow that is from 20N northward between 47W and 74W. The eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave will reach the western Caribbean Sea on Friday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected in the southwest Caribbean Sea and the adjacent parts of South and Central America during the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Depression Bertha is inland, in NW North Carolina. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the waters that are from 25N northward from 76W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an upper level trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 47W and 74W. A surface trough is along 28N50W 23N52W 21N56W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 180 nm to the ESE of the surface trough, from 20N to 25N between 48W and 56W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the rest of the waters that are from 18N to 20N between 50W and 61W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other moderate rainshowers cover the remainder of the area from 18N northward between 44W and 60W. Weak high pressure will build to the north of the area during the next few days. A cold front will move southward, to the east of Florida, on Monday. $$ mt