000 AXNT20 KNHC 271739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Tropical Storm Bertha is located near 33.3N 79.5W at 27/1530 UTC or 35 nm NE of Charleston, South Carolina and is moving N at 15 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection surrounds the center of the storm with rainbands moving well inland across South Carolina and the northern SC coast in addition to southern North Carolina. Scattered moderate convection is also to the east of the low center from 32N-34N between 77W-80W. Bertha will continue to generally move northward through tonight with a gradual increase in forward speed. Bertha will move inland across eastern and northern South Carolina later today and into central North Carolina by tonight. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...Central America Heavy Rainfall Heavy rainfall is expected to develop across portions of Central America, from the eastern Yucatan southward into the Pacific coast of Costa Rica beginning tomorrow and lasting through Tuesday, June 2. El Salvador, southern Honduras, and western Nicaragua are at the highest risk of the heaviest rainfall. These areas will have the potential for life-threatening flash floods and mud-slides. Please refer to the local meteorological services for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES A tropical wave is along 62W from 19N southward and is moving W at 15-20 kt. TPW imagery has been showing enhanced moisture east of the wave. No significant convection is associated with this wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W from 22N southward and is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Gulf of Honduras, E of 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to 05N33W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 10W-17W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 23W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level low is moving eastward from the U.S. southern Plains to the middle Mississippi Valley. The mid-level trough extends into the northern Gulf. At the surface, a weakening stationary front extends across the central Gulf from SE Louisiana near 29N90W to 21N97W. A trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 24N90W to 18N93W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is moving off the coast of Mexico into the western Bay of Campeche from 21N-25N between 94W-98W. An area of isolated thunderstorms are moving in the SE Gulf from 23N-26N between 83W-86W. Light to gentle winds are seen across the Gulf with seas ranging from 2 to 3 ft. Smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico is possible across the Bay of Campeche which would reduce visibility in that area. A weak trough over the NE Gulf will lift north and dissipate by tonight. A cold front over the NW Gulf has stalled from near New Orleans, Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico this morning, and will dissipate tonight. Weak high pressure will build in from the N and E Friday into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing numerous moderate to strong convection in the southwest Caribbean, S of 12N between 77W-84W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Windward Passage and the Virgin Islands. Fresh trades are in the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas range 4 to 6 ft with upwards of 9 ft in the central basin. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will persist in the south-central Caribbean into Fri. Fresh winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras through Thu night. During periods of lighter winds in the Gulf of Honduras, smoke from fires in Central America may lead to reduction in visibility at times into late week. A tropical wave will reach the Windward Islands later today, and move across the eastern Caribbean into Fri, then cross the central Caribbean this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is in the western Atlantic off the coast of Florida from 27N-30N between 78W-80W. Isolated thunderstorms are also popping up in the northern Bahamas. Widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen in the western and central Atlantic 19N-30N between 46W-63W. A trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 29N46W to 22N48W. A cold front is dropping southward across the central Atlantic from 31N32W to 27N42W. A trough continues to linger across the Canary Islands from 31N20W to 28N17W with no significant convection. Low pressure has moved northward out of the area and developed into Tropical Storm Bertha off the South Carolina coast this morning. Bertha is forecast to move inland by tonight. Some strong winds N of 30N between 68W and 75W will diminish tonight. For the remainder of the week, weak high pressure will build in from the N and E. $$ AReinhart