000 AXNT20 KNHC 261007 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020 Corrected header to include FL Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave extends from 17N53W to 03N57W and is moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows enhanced moisture with this tropical wave. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm west and within 420 nm east of the wave axis, mainly south of 11N. This wave may enhance showers over the Windward Islands beginning late today and eastern Caribbean on Wednesday. The axis of a tropical wave is along 82W south of 21N, moving west at 15 kt. TPW imagery shows that a plume of enhanced moisture accompanies the tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and west of the wave axis, mainly south of 16N, including over portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N13W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 03N51W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ. An area of numerous moderate scattered strong convection is seen near the coast of Africa from 02N-08N between 04W-14W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 27N89W to a 1008 mb low near 26N84W to West Palm Beach Florida near 27N80W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong E winds over the NE Gulf to the north of the surface trough with recent buoy data indicating seas to 8 ft over the NE Gulf. Only isolated showers and tstorms are seen over the eastern Gulf. Convection there has decreased in coverage and intensity over the last 12 hours, as the greatest upper-level diffluence has shifted east over Florida and the western Atlantic. The weak low pressure near 26N84W will lift north through today, then move inland on Wed. North of the low, strong east winds will continue through this morning. A weak cold front over Texas and an upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico are supporting scattered strong convection inland over south Texas and northeastern Mexico. A few of these tstorms may reach the western Gulf later this morning in a weakened state. The cold front will reach the Texas coast later today, then stall. Haze and smoke from fires over southern Mexico could reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf. A weak pressure pattern will prevail for the end of the week into the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 82W. See above. Upper-level divergence over the NW Caribbean and a surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula are enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong convection over waters just east of northern Belize and southern Yucatan. Similar convection is inland over Belize, Guatemala and portions of SE Mexico. Mid-level ridging and subsidence over the eastern and central Caribbean are leading to fair weather. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across much of the basin, locally strong near the coast of NE Colombia and NW Venezuela. Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central Caribbean into mid-week, then remain fresh through Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras into Wed night. A tropical wave along 82W will cross the western Caribbean through Wed before exiting into Central America. Another weak tropical wave will impact the eastern Caribbean Wed and Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from the eastern Gulf across South Florida to 28N79W. Strong upper-level diffluence is enhancing numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 24.5N-28.5N between 76W-80W, including over portions of the northwest Bahamas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen in the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate showers prevail east of northern Florida and Georgia from 28.5N-32N, west of 76W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds across the area west of 76W, with stronger winds in the convection near the NW Bahamas. A weak surface trough is along 66W from 21N-27N. Isolated showers and tstorms are seen from 21N-26N between the trough and 56W, aided by enhanced moisture seen on TPW imagery. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N37W to 25N47W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 60 nm of the trough axis, and this scattered line of showers extends WSW from there to about 24N52W. A 1022 mb high is near 27N40W. In the NE Atlantic, a surface trough is from 23N20W to 32N27N. Isolated showers are near the trough axis north of 29N. The weak surface trough S of 27N along 66W will move little and likely dissipate today. Another surface trough oriented west to east off the South Florida coast will lift N through tonight, with strong east winds ahead of it. Another trough may develop mainly E of 63W during the latter half of the week. $$ Hagen