000 AXNT20 KNHC 251733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 110 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 51W/52W from 18N southward, moving W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 07N-10N between 46W-56W. The wave may enhance showers over the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Tue into Wed. The axis of a tropical wave is near 78W from 20N near southeast Cuba southward to the coast of eastern Panama, moving W at 15 kt. No convection over the water is noted. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 05N30W to 02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 150 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 15W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the SE Gulf from SW Florida near 26N81W to 24N88W. An upper-level trough axis from the NW Gulf to western Cuba. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from central Cuba across the Straits of Florida to 28N. An area of moderate convection is also moving from Louisiana to the north-central Gulf, N of 28N between 89W-91W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in the western Gulf from 23N-27N between 92W-96W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are seen in the NE Gulf, north of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate winds are seen across the rest of the basin. Seas are 4 ft across the basin and up to 7 ft in the NE Gulf. Light smoke is noted in the Bay of Campeche. A low pressure trough over the eastern Gulf will produce fresh to strong winds and building seas E of 90W today and tonight, as it slowly lifts northward across the NE Gulf through Tue. Another trough will move off the Texas coast Tue, then drift east and weak through mid week. Haze and smoke from fires over southern Mexico could reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough axis extends from the NW Gulf to western Cuba. This is supporting scattered strong convection across western Cuba, N of 21N between 81W-83W. This is adding to heavy rain that has already fallen over parts of Cuba. Scattered moderate to strong convection is being enhanced by the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean, S of 11N between 76W-82W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted near east of Bonaire. Fresh to strong trades are N of Colombia and Venezuela. Fresh trades are across the central Caribbean and SW Cuba, with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas range 4 to 6 ft and up to 8 ft in the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central Caribbean into mid-week, then remain fresh into Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras into Wed night. A tropical wave along 77W will cross the western Caribbean into Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The surface trough in the Gulf and the upper-level trough extending across most of the Gulf is giving way to scattered moderate convection in the western Atlantic from 22N-31N between 75W-80W. This includes most of the Bahamas. A trough is noted in the western Atlantic from 21N69W to 27N69W with no significant convection. Another trough north of Hispaniola is analyzed from 25N63W to 20N70W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are noted near this trough from 22N-27N between 53W-65W. In the central Atlantic, a 1021 mb low is analyzed near 28N44W with a trough extending along the low from 31N38W to 23N50W. Showers are seen along the trough and low. In the eastern Atlantic, another trough extends off the Western Sahara coast near 22N17W to 31N29W with no significant convection associated with it. A weak surface trough along 69W will move little and could dissipate by Tue. A new surface trough is developing off the South Florida coast this morning, and will lift north through Tue. Fresh to strong winds are likely to develop on the north side of this trough. Another trough may develop mainly E of 65W during the latter half of the week. $$ AReinhart