000 AXNT20 KNHC 250509 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0440 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 49W from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N-08.5N between 240 nm W and 120 nm E of the wave axis. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 03N-10N within 360 nm E of the wave axis. The wave should enhance showers over the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Tue into Wed. The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W from 20N southward, moving at 15 kt. No convection is noted, but low-clouds are seen near the wave axis on nighttime visible imagery. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 03N38W to 04N47W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N-07N between 26W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the SE Gulf from Cancun to the Dry Tortugas. An upper-level trough axis extends from the Texas coast to Cuba. Upper-level diffluence is enhancing numerous moderate scattered strong convection in the Florida Straits, east of 81.5W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen elsewhere over the eastern Gulf, mainly east of 85.5W and in the Yucatan Channel. Most of the Gulf between 86W-93W is free of significant shower activity. A low pressure over the Texas Panhandle combined with favorable upper-level dynamics is leading to areas of strong to severe tstorms over southern and central Texas. Scattered showers and tstorms are already spreading over the western Gulf of Mexico off the coasts of western Louisiana, Texas and northeastern Mexico. Expect some strong tstorms over these waters this morning between 0600-1200 UTC, especially off the middle and lower Texas coast. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most of the Gulf. However, strong winds are seen over portions of the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. The sfc trough over the southeastern Gulf will produce fresh to strong winds and building seas E of 90W today as it slowly lifts northward across the NE Gulf. A trough or weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf and weaken during the middle of the week. Haze and smoke from fires over southern Mexico could reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough from Cancun to the Dry Tortugas is producing scattered showers and isolated tstorms in the Yucatan Channel. An upper-level trough extending from Texas to Cuba is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection over portions of west-central Cuba and the waters north of 20N between 79.5W-82W. This is adding to heavy rain that has already fallen over parts of Cuba. A tropical wave extending from Guatemala southward to the east Pacific is responsible for scattered moderate convection over Honduras and waters within 30 nm of the coast of northeastern Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are occurring over Hispaniola due to the influence of a surface trough extending from 25N64W to 19N68W and due to the tropical wave along 75W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong trades over much of the central Caribbean. Moderate winds are over the SW Caribbean and far NE basin. Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central Caribbean through tonight, then remain fresh through Fri night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Honduras through Tue night. A tropical wave along 75W will cross the western Caribbean today through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough over the SE Gulf of Mexico and an upper-level trough over Cuba are enhancing numerous moderate scattered strong convection over the Florida Straits, Florida Keys, extreme southern Florida and the Atlantic waters south of 27N and west of 79W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong E to SE winds over much of this area, as well as the NW Bahamas. Expect scattered to numerous showers and tstorms to continue there for much of the day and push northward as the day progresses. A couple of weak surface troughs located in the area from 20N-30N between 64W-70W are producing isolated to scattered showers in the area. A 1024 mb high is near 33N54W. A 1022 mb high is near 26N40W. In between the two highs, a surface trough is analyzed from 31N40W to 24N49W. Isolated showers are along the trough axis. A surface trough along 68W will drift westward and weaken through today. The trough over the SE Gulf of Mexico may extend its axis over Florida and into the western Atlantic today, resulting in fresh winds and building seas offshore as it lifts northward into Tue. Winds and seas may increase over the northern waters E of 70W late Wed through Fri as another low pressure trough develops E of the area. $$ Hagen