000 AXNT20 KNHC 241733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 133 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 46W from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. The wave shows up well in Total Precipitable Water imagery, with the highest TPW values just west of the 700 mb trough axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N between 37W-54W. The wave should enhance showers over the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Tue into Wed. A tropical wave is along 86W/87W from 22N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. An upper-level trough from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to Costa Rica is also providing upper-level diffluence over the northwest Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 17N between 74W-85W. The wave may weaken during the next 24 hours over S Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 03N35W to 05N45W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N47W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 21W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... 15 kt E to SE surface flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. An upper- level trough axis extends from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Channel to Costa Rica. Isolated moderate convection and scattered showers are E of 87W over the Gulf of Mexico to include over Florida. A low pressure trough will develop over the eastern Gulf later today. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas E of 90W tonight into Mon as the trough slowly lifts northward across the NE Gulf. A trough or weak cold front may move into the NW Gulf by mid-week. Elsewhere, smoke from fires over southern Mexico could reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean along 86W/87W. See above. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over N Colombia and E Panama. An upper-level trough is also over the W Atlantic. See above. Upper-level ridging and dry air is over the E Caribbean Sea with mostly fair weather. Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central Caribbean through Mon night, then remain fresh through Thu night. A tropical wave near 46W will move into the waters E of the Windward Islands late Mon or Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Isolated moderate convection and scattered showers are over the W Atlantic W of 73W to include the Bahamas, mostly due to upper level diffluence. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N66W to 24N68W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N41W to 25N49W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Over the W Atlantic, a surface trough along 67W-68W will gradually drift westward through Mon. Another trough is expected to develop near the Florida coast on Mon, resulting in fresh winds and building seas offshore into Tue. Winds and seas may increase E of 70W late Wed through Thu night as another low pressure trough develops E of the area. $$ Formosa