462 AXNT20 KNHC 241011 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 611 AM EDT Sun May 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 18N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave shows up well in Total Precipitable Water imagery, with the highest TPW values just west of the 700 mb trough axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-07N between 37W-48W. The wave should enhance showers over the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Tue into Wed. A tropical wave is along 85W from 22N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. An upper-level trough that extends from the north- central Gulf of Mexico to Costa Rica is providing upper-level diffluence and divergence over the northwest Caribbean Sea, which is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection from 17N to the S coast of Cuba between Jamaica and the wave axis. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is west of the wave axis, north of 18N through the Yucatan Channel. The wave should become diffuse in the next 12-24 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 03N41W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 01N46W to the coast of Brazil near 00N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 27W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough axis extends from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Channel to Costa Rica. Scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, mostly east of 88W, or east of a line from Cancun to Pensacola. An earlier ASCAT pass showed fresh E to SE winds across the western Gulf west of 91W. Gentle to moderate winds are in the NE Gulf outside of any local convection. Fresh winds are seen in the Straits of Florida. A low pressure trough will develop over the eastern Gulf later today. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas E of 90W tonight into Mon as the trough slowly lifts northward across the NE Gulf. A trough or weak cold front may move into the NW Gulf by mid-week. Elsewhere, smoke from fires over southern Mexico could reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean along 85W. See above for description of the wave and of convection in the northwest Caribbean associated with the upper-level trough. Mid- to upper- level ridging and dry air prevail over the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea. An earlier ASCAT pass showed strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, south of 16N between 67W-75W. Fresh to locally strong winds in and near convection are over portions of the NW Caribbean, especially between Jamaica and 81.5W. Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central Caribbean through Mon, then remain fresh through the middle of the week. A weak tropical wave over the western Caribbean will dissipate today. However, active weather is expected to continue across the NW Caribbean through today associated with an upper- level trough. A tropical wave along 44W/45W will enhance showers for the Lesser Antilles by Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms near South Florida, the northwest Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. An earlier ASCAT pass showed fresh E winds throughout the Bahamas region and the Florida Straits. A weak surface trough is from 31N67W to 23N68W. Isolated showers are east of the trough axis. Farther east, a stationary front extends SW from a 1018 mb low near 32N42W to 25N49W. A surface trough is from 25N49W to 20N54W. Scattered showers are near and SE of the front and trough. The surface trough extending from 31N67W to 23N68W will gradually drift westward through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the area into the middle of the week. Winds and seas may increase over the northern waters E of 70W late Wed through Thu as a low pressure trough develops E of the area. $$ Lewitsky