000 AXNT20 KNHC 240518 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat May 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 43W from 17N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave shows up well in Total Precipitable Water imagery, with the highest TPW values just west of the 700 mb trough axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 37W-46W. The wave should enhance showers over the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Tue into Wed. A tropical wave is along 83/84W from 21N southward, moving westward around 15 kt. An upper-level trough that extends from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to Costa Rica is providing upper-level diffluence and divergence over the northwest Caribbean Sea, which is enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection from 17N to the S coast of Cuba between Jamaica and the wave axis. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is west of the wave axis, north of 19N through the Yucatan Channel. The wave should become diffuse in the next 24 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to 06.5N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N20W to 03N40W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 01N46W to 01N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 27W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough axis extends from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Channel to Costa Rica. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, mostly east of 88W, or east of a line from Cancun to Pensacola. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh E to SE winds across the western Gulf west of 91W. Gentle to moderate winds are in the NE Gulf. Fresh winds are seen in the Florida Straits. A low pressure trough will develop over the eastern Gulf today. Expect fresh to strong winds and building seas E of 90W tonight into Mon as the trough slowly lifts northward across the NE Gulf. A trough or weak cold front may move into the NW Gulf by mid-week. Elsewhere, smoke from fires over southern Mexico could reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean along 83/84W. See above for description of the wave and of convection in the northwest Caribbean associated with the upper-level trough. Mid- to upper-level ridging and dry air prevail over the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, south of 16N between 67W-75W. Fresh to locally strong winds are over portions of the NW Caribbean, especially between Jamaica and 81.5W. Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central Caribbean through Mon, then remain fresh through the middle of next week. A weak tropical wave over the western Caribbean will dissipate today. However, active weather is expected to continue across the NW Caribbean through today associated with an upper-level trough. A tropical wave along 43W will enhance showers for the Lesser Antilles by Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms near South Florida, the northwest Bahamas and the Florida Straits. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh E winds throughout the Bahamas region and the Florida Straits. A weak surface trough is from 30N67W to 24N68W. Isolated showers are east of the trough axis. Farther east, a stationary front extends SW from a 1018 mb low near 32N41W to 26N46W. A surface trough is from 26N46W to 22N51W. Scattered showers are near the front and trough. The surface trough extending from 30N65W to 23N68W will gradually drift westward through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the area into the middle of next week. Winds and seas may increase over the northern waters E of 70W late Wed through Thu as a low pressure trough develops E of the area. $$ Hagen