000
AXNT20 KNHC 231653
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1253 PM EDT Sat May 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 80W from 20N southward, moving westward 
at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N-21N 
between 77W-84W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of 
the wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from the border of Guinea and Sierra Leone 
near 09N13W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 04N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 04N-08N between 13W-19W. Similar convection is from 02N-05N 
between 36W-40W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-15 kt SE surface flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. An upper 
level trough is over the central Gulf with axis along 92W. Upper 
level diffluence E of the wave axis is producing scattered showers
over the E Gulf E of 90W and S of 27N to include S Florida, W 
Cuba, and N Yucatan Peninsula. 

A surface ridge across the NE Gulf will shift eastward through 
early next week. A low pressure trough will develop over the 
eastern Gulf on Sun and produce increasing winds and seas E of 90W
Sun night into Mon. Smoke from fires over southern Mexico may 
reduce visibility at times over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean along 80W. See above. 
Upper level diffluence is also over the W Caribbean. Besides the 
convection mentioned with the tropical wave, scattered showers are
over the far NW Caribbean, Cuba, and along the coast of Nicaragua.

Fresh to occasionally strong trades will persist in the south-
central Caribbean through Mon night, then diminish into the middle
of next week. A tropical wave along 80W will move across the 
western Caribbean through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 30N66W to 23N68W. 
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. A 1025 mb high 
is over the W Atlantic near 34N60W. The tail end of a stationary 
front is over the central Atlantic from 31N43W to 25N50W to 
25N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm SE of the 
front. A 1034 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 44N14W with 
ridging extending to 25N35W. 

Lingering NE swell offshore of the Bahamas will subside by 
tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the W 
Atlantic through the middle of next week.

$$
Formosa