000
AXNT20 KNHC 221706
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
106 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 75W from 20N southward, moving westward 
15 knots. Scattered showers are N of 27N between 72W-78W.  
Scattered moderate convection is inland over N Colombia within
120 nm of the wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 
03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 01N-06N between 20W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low is centered near Veracruz Mexico. Scattered 
moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche S of 22N between 
92W-96W. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has 10-15 kt SE
return flow. Isolated showers are over S Florida and the Straits
of Florida.

Surface ridging over the NE Gulf will support moderate to fresh
E to SE winds into early next week, over much of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. 
Scattered moderate convection is along the coasts of Costa Rica
and Nicaragua from 10N-13N between 81W-84W. Isolated moderate 
convection is also over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba,
and the NW Caribbean.  

Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will persist in the 
south-central Caribbean Sea through Monday. A tropical wave 
along 75W will move across the Caribbean Sea into Sunday. Fresh 
to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through 
Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 36N62W. A stationary
front is over the central Atlantic from 31N46W to 24N59W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm E of the front.
A 1027 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N20W. 

A frontal boundary NE of the Bahamas will drift E and weaken 
today. Large NE swell will affect the waters NE of the Bahamas
through tonight, then subside on Sat. Modest high pressure
will build across the northern waters through Sat.

$$
Formosa