000 AXNT20 KNHC 220526 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 72W/73W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots, through Haiti. The base of an upper level trough is reaching 16N82W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible precipitation are being pushed northeastward, and into the same area toward which the tropical wave is moving. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N14W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 05N19W 05N22W 03N26W 03N32W, and to 02N34W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 17W and 25W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward between 14W and 60W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 02N to the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 14W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A part of the stationary front, from 24 hours ago, remains along the northern boundary of the Florida Panhandle. The stationary front extends from southern Georgia and southern Alabama, toward central Mississippi. An upper level trough extends from the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Channel, into the Caribbean Sea near 16N82W. Precipitation: numerous strong in the coastal plains and coastal waters of Mexico from 20N to 24N between 96W and 100W. Isolated moderate covers the Gulf of Mexico from 28N southward from 88W eastward. A NE Gulf of Mexico ridge will support moderate to fresh E or SE winds into early next week, in much of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Channel, into the Caribbean Sea near 16N82W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, cover the Caribbean Sea from Hispaniola and Cuba southwestward, to Central America, from 70W westward. Nicaragua is on the western side of the base of the Gulf of Mexico-to-Caribbean Sea upper level trough. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 11N to 15N between 80W and 87W, covering the coastal waters of Nicaragua, and much of the interior of the country. Similar precipitation covers the western half of Honduras, and the southern part of Guatemala. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 22/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.01 in Guadeloupe. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will persist in the south central Caribbean Sea through Monday. A tropical wave along 71W will move across the Caribbean Sea into Sunday. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, to just to the north of the NW Bahamas, into the SE Gulf of Mexico, to the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to the east and southeast of the upper level trough. A stationary front passes through 32N44W, to 31N49W. The front becomes dissipating stationary, from 31N49W, to 28N60W, 25N71W, and curving northwestward beyond 32N76W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are within 400 nm to the south and southeast of the stationary front/dissipating stationary front from 71W eastward, and within 360 nm to the WSW of the dissipating stationary elsewhere. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 22/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.17 in Bermuda. An upper level trough is along 24N37W 18N50W 08N55W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N to 16N between 40W and 53W. The current stationary front will drift SE, and weaken through Friday. Large NE swell will affect the waters NE of the Bahamas through Friday night, and then subside on Saturday. Modest high pressure will build across the northern waters on Friday and Saturday. It is possible that a weak cold front may move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Sunday. $$ mt