000 AXNT20 KNHC 210557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 65W/66W from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. The wave has been apparent in the latest infrared satellite imagery. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 70W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 04N25W 03N37W, to the Equator along 42W, to 01N47W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through SW Georgia, across the Florida Panhandle, into the Gulf of Mexico and to SE Louisiana, and beyond SW Louisiana into Texas. Warming cloud top temperatures, dissipating precipitation, and remnant multilayered clouds cover the Gulf of Mexico from 26N northward. An upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, to just to the north of the NW Bahamas, into the SE Gulf of Mexico, to the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to the east and southeast of the upper level trough. A ridge will dominate much of the Gulf of Mexico through Sunday producing, an E to SE wind flow. Fresh to locally strong winds are possible in the SW Gulf of Mexico each night. These winds will be associated with a trough drifting W off the Yucatan Peninsula. A stationary front in the far northern waters will move northward on Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, to just to the north of the NW Bahamas, into the SE Gulf of Mexico, to the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to the east and southeast of the upper level trough. An upper level trough extends from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea to Nicaragua. Precipitation: numerous strong from 14N to 16N between 81W and 83W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, some from convective debris clouds with dissipating precipitation, cover the area that is from 16N southward from 77W westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, that covers the area from 80W eastward, is pushing toward the east other broken to overcast multilayered clouds. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 21/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.11 in Guadeloupe. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will persist in the south central Caribbean Sea through Sunday. A tropical wave along 66W will move across the Caribbean Sea through Friday. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, to just to the north of the NW Bahamas, into the SE Gulf of Mexico, to the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to the east and southeast of the upper level trough. A 1010 mb low pressure center is just to the west of Bermuda. An occluded front extends from the Bermuda low pressure center to a triple point that is near 33N61W. A stationary front curves toward the southwest to 30N68W, to 31N75W, beyond 32N78W, and eventually to a SE Georgia 1011 mb low pressure center. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is near the NW Bahamas; and from 26N to the stationary front between 66W and 75W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 20N northward from 60W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 21/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.40 in Bermuda. An upper level trough is along 26N43W 22N50W 16N56W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N northward between 45W and 65W. A surface ridge passes through the Madeira Archipelago, to a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 31N24W, to a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 27N34W, to 25N55W, to 25N66W, to the central Bahamas near 23N77W. The low pressure center that is near Bermuda will move SE to S, into the forecast waters on Thursday, and weaken. Large NE swell from the low pressure center will affect the waters that are to the NE of the Bahamas through Friday. The swell will subside on Friday night and Saturday. High pressure will build modestly across the northern waters on Friday and Saturday. $$ mt