000 AXNT20 KNHC 201754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 129 PM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 65W from 10N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave has been apparent in the latest infrared satellite imagery, as well as model guidance. Scattered moderate convection prevails east of the wave axis approaching the Lesser Antilles at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 12N16W to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 05N39W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate is noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1014 mb high centered near 25N87W. A stationary front extends along 30N between 86W-89W with scattered showers. To the southeast, a surface trough extends from 22N88W to 26N81W. Another surface trough is analyzed over western Bay of Campeche with scattered showers. The ridge will dominate much of the Gulf waters through Sun producing an E to SE wind flow. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours, drift westward across the SW Gulf at night, and dissipate in the morning. Fresh to locally strong winds will be associated with the trough. The stationary front over the far north waters will lift N on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave currently moving east across the eastern Caribbean. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, related to the Atlantic to Yucatan Peninsula trough, covers the far NW corner of the Caribbean. With this, scattered showers prevail in this area. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the area , mainly east of 77W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin, except south of 14N between 66W-73W and near the gulf of Honduras, where moderate to fresh winds are noted. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean through Sun. The tropical wave along will continue moving across the Caribbean through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends across the west Atlantic enhancing convection mainly west of 61W. A surface trough extends from 28N75W to 26N80W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 30N26W. Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur north of the area will move SE to S through Thu and weaken. Large NE swell from Arthur will affect the waters NE of the Bahamas through Fri then subside Fri night and Sat. A weak frontal trough moving across Florida will dissipate later today. High pressure will build modestly across the northern waters through Sat. $$ ERA