000 AXNT20 KNHC 201030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Wed May 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 63W from 20N southward, moving westward at 15 knots. The wave has been apparent in the latest infrared satellite imagery. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate is from 15N to 16N between 55W and 57W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 13N to 20N between 54W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 05N25W to 04N40W to 09N53W and to 08N56W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 21W and 54W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between 15W and 55W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 04N between the Prime Meridian and 01W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes from Jacksonville Florida, across north central Florida. An upper level trough passes through 32N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida to the south of Lake Okeechobee and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N84W, to the central part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N to 32N between 65W and 71W. Similar clouds and precipitation are also in the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba to 30N between 73W and 80W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence, that is apparent in water vapor satellite imagery, is in the Gulf of Mexico, to the northwest of the upper level trough. A weak stationary front extending into the NE Gulf of Mexico will dissipate today. A cold front is expected to stall along the northern Gulf Coast tonight through Friday. E to SE winds will prevail across the basin Friday through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, related to the Atlantic Ocean-to-Yucatan Peninsula trough, covers the far NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, especially from 80W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from Jamaica, along 77W, westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in Central America is from 09N to 15N between 83W and 90W, from Costa Rica to Nicaragua and Guatemala. Fresh trade winds will continue in the central Caribbean Sea through Friday. High pressure, building into the region on Friday night and Saturday, will increase the wind speeds in the south central Caribbean Sea during the upcoming weekend. A tropical wave that is along 63W will move across the Caribbean Sea through Thursday. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras from tonight through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida to the south of Lake Okeechobee and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N84W, to the central part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N to 32N between 65W and 71W. Similar clouds and precipitation are also in the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba to 30N between 73W and 80W. A cold front passes through 32N32W, to 28N40W, and to 26N48W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 180 nm to the NNW of the cold front. Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur is north of the area near 35N65W. Arthur will move SE to S through Thursday, and weaken. Large NE swell from Arthur will affect the waters that are to the NE of the Bahamas, through Friday, and then subside on Friday night and Saturday. A weak frontal trough moving across Florida will dissipate later today. High pressure will build modestly across the northern waters on Friday and Saturday. $$ mt/dbm