034 AXNT20 KNHC 191723 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EDT Tue May 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR... Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur is centered near 36.8N 68.6W at 19/1500 UTC or 260 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving E at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 36N to 41N between 60W and 78W. Arthur is expected to gradually turn southward and slow down over the next day or so. Some gradual weakening is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Wednesday. See Arthur's final NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml and Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 04N to 17N near 58W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers associated with the tropical wave are mostly from 06N-12N between 55W-60W. Showers from this wave will likely spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles late tonight and Wed. No tropical cyclone development is expected from this system through at least the next several days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ extends from there to 04N44W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N-06N between 15W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 15 UTC, a weak cold front extends from the Big Bend area of Florida near 30N83W to 27N87W. No showers or thunderstorms are associated with this front. The only showers occurring currently are located in the SE Gulf from 24N-27N between 84W and the SW Florida coast. Winds and seas are quiescent across the Gulf away from the showers. Active weather is expected to continue across the Florida Straits through this evening. A second cold front is forecast to stall along the northern Gulf Coast late Wed through Fri. Elsewhere, smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may reduce visibility at times in the Bay of Campeche for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate pressure gradient between a ridge north of the islands and the Colombian low is producing general fresh to strong trades across the Caribbean. This morning's scatterometer pass showed a maxima of strong breeze E trades just north of Columbia. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occuring in the NW Caribbean north of 19N and west of 80W as well as in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the central Caribbean through tonight then diminish as low pressure prevails along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. High pressure will build into the region late Fri and Sat to bring a return to fresh to strong trades. A tropical wave entering the Tropical Atlantic waters today will move across the E Caribbean Wed through Thu. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri. Agricultural fires in Central America may reduce visibility at times across the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See sections above for information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur and on the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles. A 1025 mb Azores-Bermuda High is centered near 28N30W with ridging extending westward to 28N72W. A weak cold front enters our waters near 32N35W and extends west-southwestward to 27N52W. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the front. In the wake of Arthur, scattered moderate convection is occurring in the Florida Straits, NW Bahamas, and north of the Bahamas, as abundant moisture is being pulled northward. Winds and seas, away from the thunderstorms, are generally tranquil. Northerly swell from Arthur is expected to move into the waters N of the Bahamas Wed and subside by Fri morning. Otherwise, a weak cold front will move across Florida into the far western waters tonight and dissipate by Wed morning. $$ Landsea