000 AXNT20 KNHC 182224 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 624 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR... Tropical Storm Arthur is centered near 36.1N 73.9W at 18/2100 UTC or 100 nm NE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving NE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the east on Tuesday. A slower southeast or south- southeast motion is expected to begin Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will continue to move away from the east coast of the United States. While some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics late by tonight or Tuesday. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis from 17N51W to 02N54W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated are noted in the vicinity of the wave mainly S of 12N. Moisture from this wave will likely spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles late Tue into Wed. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N20W to 05N51W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present within 90 nm either side of the trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front resides over the north central Gulf, extending from 31N86W to 26N90W. A pre-frontal trough extends to the SE of the front, from 29N84W to 25N89W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is located between this trough and the coast of Florida. A surface trough is located in the SW Gulf of Mexico, stretching from 23N98W to 19N94W. No showers are associated with this feature. High pressure of 1015 mb, centered near 26N96W, dominates weather over the remainder of the Gulf. North and west of the front, moderate to fresh W winds are occurring. Also, to the east of the high pressure ridge, moderate to fresh return southerly winds are occurring in the far western Gulf. The front will move eastward across the Gulf and weaken through Tue evening. A second cold front is forecast to stall along the northern Gulf Coast late Wed through Fri. Elsewhere, smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may reduce visibility at times in the Bay of Campeche for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Deeper moisture, evidenced by water vapor imagery combined with upper level diffluence is leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the NW Gulf from the Gulf of Honduras to the Yucatan Channel. Dry air subsidence prevails across the remainder basin, which is supporting fair weather conditions. Fresh to strong easterly winds are occurring in the south-central Caribbean, with generally moderate trades elsewhere. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the central Caribbean through Tue night then resume again Fri. A tropical wave will enter the Tropical Atlantic waters Tue and move across the SE Caribbean Wed through Thu. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri. Agricultural fires in Central America may reduce visibility at times across the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Arthur is departing east away from the North Carolina coast. See the section above for details. A tropical wave is analyzed to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the section above for more information. High pressure prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 29N52W and a 1024 mb high near 29N31W. Northerly swell from Arthur is expected to move into the waters N of the Bahamas Wed and Thu. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge will persist across the central waters for the next several days. $$ KONARIK