000 AXNT20 KNHC 181158 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 758 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR... Tropical Storm Arthur is near 33.5N 76.6W at 18/0900 UTC, or about 75 nm S of Morehead City, North Carolina, moving NNE at 12 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb and maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 33N to 37N W of 72W. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will approach the coast of North Carolina during the next few hours, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina later today. Arthur is then forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States tonight and Tuesday. While some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Tuesday. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is to the E of the Lesser Antilles with axis S of 18N along 51W, moving W around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 46W and 51W. Moisture from this tropical wave could spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles late Tue into Wed. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 04N30W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N-10N E of 16W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from 30N87W to 24N92W. The front will move eastward across the Gulf through Tue evening. Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of this front affecting the waters E of 87W. Another cold front will follow, which is forecast to stall along the northern Gulf Coast Wed through Fri. Elsewhere, smoke from fires in Mexico may reduce visibility at times in the Bay of Campeche for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Latest low level precipitable water imagery show abundant moisture over the western half of the Caribbean, which along upper level difflunce is supporting scattered showers and tstms over Costa Rica and Panama adjacent waters and in the Gulf of Honduras. Dry air subsidence prevail across the remainder basin, which is supporting fair weather conditions. However, the passage of a tropical wave by Tue and Wed may bring showers to this region of the basin. Otherwise, fresh to strong trades will continue over the central Caribbean through Tue night then resume again Thu night through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed night through Fri. Fires in Central America may reduce visibility at times in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Storm Arthur near 33.5N 76.6W 1002 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNE at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Arthur will move to 35.2N 74.9W this afternoon, 36.5N 72.1W Tue morning, become extratropical and move to 36.5N 69.0W Tue afternoon, 35.6N 66.5W Wed morning, and 34.4N 65.1W Thu morning. Arthur will change little in intensity as it moves near 33.0N 64.5W early Fri, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 31.0N 63.5W Sat. Refer to the Special Features section above for further details on Tropical Storm Arthur. A set of northerly swell from Arthur may impact the waters N of the Bahamas Wed and Thu. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge will persist across the central waters for the next several days. $$ Ramos