000 AXNT20 KNHC 180443 TWDAT Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR... Tropical Storm Arthur is near 32.4N 76.9W at 18/0300 UTC, or about 185 nm SSW of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving NNE at 9 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1003 mb and maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. Arthur is expected to turn NE today and east on Tue. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina today. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the U.S. East Coast Monday night and become post-tropical Tue morning in the vicinity of 36.5N 70W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends from 18N47W to 02N51W, moving W around 15 kt. The tropical wave is situated along the leading edge of a high amplitude moisture plume seen in Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is seen within 120 nm of the wave axis from 02N-09N. Moisture from this tropical wave could spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles late Tue into Wed. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 04N30W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N-08N between 17W-37W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen near the coast of Africa from 00N-09N between 05W-14W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 18/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near Gulfport, MS to near Boothville, LA to near 26N93W. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from Pensacola Florida to 26N88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen north of 27N, between 84.5W-89.5W. Similar convection is seen in the Florida Straits between 81W-85W. The convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence, to the east of an upper-level trough over the central Gulf. Isolated showers and tstorms are elsewhere over portions of the northern, eastern and southern Gulf, including behind the cold front near the coast of Louisiana. A 1014 mb high is over the W Gulf near 27N95W. The weak cold front from Gulfport, MS to 26N93W will move eastward across the northern Gulf early this week. This front may be followed by another cold front that could stall near the northern Gulf Coast or over the northern Gulf Wed through Fri. Elsewhere, smoke from fires in Mexico may reduce visibility at times in the Bay of Campeche for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level anticyclonic flow centered north of Puerto Rico is spreading subsidence and dry air over the eastern Caribbean. Isolated showers and tstorms are over the far SW Caribbean and in the vicinity of Cuba. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is seen over portions of Guatemala, Belize, Honduras and El Salvador. Some of these showers and tstorms may be spilling into the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers extend N from there through the Yucatan Channel. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, south of 15.5N between 70W-74.5W, including along the coast of NW Venezuela and NE Colombia. Fresh trades are elsewhere from 10.5N-17N between 63W-81W. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the central Caribbean through Tue night then resume again Thu night through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will pulse early this morning in the Gulf of Honduras then resume Wed night through Fri. Fires in Central America may reduce visibility at times in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Arthur. Isolated tstorms prevail near western Grand Bahama Island and off the coast of central Florida, associated with a moist atmosphere left in the wake of Tropical Storm Arthur, which is now well north of the area. Farther E, a surface trough extends from 32N47W to 26N57W. A line of scattered showers and tstorms is just E of the surface trough, mainly N of 28N and E of 52W. A 1023 mb surface high is near 28N46W. A set of northerly swell from Arthur may impact the waters N of the Bahamas late this week. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge will persist across the central waters for the next several days. $$ Hagen