000 AXNT20 KNHC 171724 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 115 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR... Tropical Storm Arthur is near 30.5N 77.4W at 1500 UTC, or about 300 nm SSW of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving NNE at 8 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb and maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 28N-32N between 74W-78W. Scattered showers are north of Arthurs center from 32N-34N between 74W- 80W. Arthur is expected to turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, Arthur will remain well offshore the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina today, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 46W moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 04N-09N between 44W-48W is associated with this broad tropical wave. Moisture from this tropical wave could spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles late Tue into Wed. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 03N30W to 00N49W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 02N-09N between 12W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ between 22W-36W.. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1500 UTC, a cold front is pushing off the NW Gulf, stretching from central Louisiana near 30N93W to near Corpus Christi, TX near 27N97W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 29N89W to 24N94W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen right along this trough from 27N- 29N. A 1009 mb low is in the Bay of Campeche near 20N93W with a trough along it from 23N93W to the coast of Mexico near 19N92W. Numerous strong convection is in the south-central Gulf and the Bay of Campeche from 21N-25N between 89W-92W. Behind the front, light northerly winds are noted. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are across the rest of the Gulf. Seas range from 3 to 5 ft with 8 ft in the Bay of Campeche. Light smoke in the Bay of Campeche may be reducing visibility. A weak cold front will move eastward across the northern Gulf early this week. Smoke from fires in Mexico may reduce visibility at times in the Bay of Campeche for the next several days. A stationary front may linger near the northern Gulf Coast Wed through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry air subsidence from aloft continues to support generally fair weather conditions across the basin. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen near the Panama and Costa Rica waters S of 12N between 76W-83W. Strong trades are north of Colombia with fresh trades seen across the eastern and central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are in the NW basin. Seas range from 4 to 7 ft, with up to 11 ft north of Colombia. Light smoke is noted in the Gulf of Honduras which could reduce visibility. High pressure north of the region will weaken and shift eastward early this week. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the south- central Caribbean through Thu. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Fires in Central America may reduce visibility at times in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Arthur. Scattered moderate convection is along and east of the Bahamas from 24N-27N between 74W-77W. A trough extends across the central Atlantic from 31N52W to 26N59W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near the trough N of 29N between 50W-53W. The tail-end of a stationary front extends into the central Atlantic from 31N40W to 30N42W with a trough extending southward from 30N42W to 26N46W. No significant convection is associated with these features. Another trough in the eastern Atlantic is analyzed from 28N33W to 25N33W. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the rest of the basin which will persist for the next several days. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted in the western Atlantic to the SE of Arthur, with gentle to moderate westerly winds SW of Arthur. Seas are building to 15 ft near the center of the storm. $$ AReinhart