000 AXNT20 KNHC 170614 TWDAT Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR... Tropical Depression One has strengthened to Tropical Storm Arthur. At 17/0300 UTC, Tropical Storm Arthur is near 29.4N 77.7W, or about 165 nm ENE of Cape Canaveral, FL, moving NNE at 11 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1006 mb and maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. An outer band in the SW quadrant has scattered moderate convection between 120-210 nm from the center. Arthur is forecast to strengthen as it moves NE and passes near or offshore the Outer Banks of North Carolina Monday morning. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory at hurricanes.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/170311.shtml? for more details. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... The latest ASCAT pass from around 17/0230 UTC shows gale force NE to E winds are currently occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico from 21N-23N between 92.5W-95.5W. NOAA buoy 42055 near 22.1N 93.9W reported 1-min winds of 31-35 kt continuously from 16/2320 UTC to 17/0500 UTC. The area of gales is in between a 1015 mb high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a 1002 mb low over Mexico. The gale force winds in this area are forecast to end by 1200 UTC this morning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 42W moving W at 10-15 kt. The tropical wave shows up well on TPW imagery and the 700 mb trough diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection from 04N-09N between 31W-45W is associated with this broad tropical wave. Moisture from this tropical wave could spread over portions of the Lesser Antilles late Tue into Wed. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 04N40W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 01N44W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02.5N-08N between 07W-30W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01S-04N between 46W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico until 1200 UTC Sunday morning. See section above for details. A 1015 mb sfc high is over the NE Gulf near 29N85W. An upper- level low is over Florida, and another upper-level low is over Texas. The pattern is producing strong upper-level divergence over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, scattered moderate convection is seen over portions of the central to southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Some strong convection is seen near the coast of Mexico from 20N-22N between 95W-99W. Aside from the area of gales in the SW Gulf of Mexico, most of the Gulf is experiencing gentle wind speeds. The surface ridge over the NE Gulf will continue weakening today. Low pressure may develop near Louisiana today and drag a weak cold front across the northern Gulf Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry conditions prevail over much of the basin, although scattered showers and tstorms are seen near and over portions of Cuba. Isolated showers are in the far SW Caribbean near Panama and Costa Rica. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh winds over most of the basin, except for strong winds in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the south-central Caribbean near Venezuela and Colombia through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Arthur. A surface trough extends from 30N55W to 26N61W. Scattered showers are within 150 nm of the trough axis. A 1025 mb high is near 32N60W and a 1026 mb high is near 33N45W. A stationary front extends from 31N38W to 27.5N45W, with isolated showers along the front. $$ Hagen