000 AXNT20 KNHC 162333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 733 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression One near 28.4N 78.6W 1008 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NNE at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of all quadrants of the center, and scattered moderate convection extends within 300 nm E quadrant. T.D. One will strengthen to a tropical storm near 29.7N 78.0W Sun morning, move to 31.4N 77.4W Sun afternoon, 33.0N 76.6W Mon morning, then continue NE into the N Atlc. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 04N35W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 06N between 05W and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 08N between 15W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1004 mb low is centered over SE Texas near 30N95W with a surface trough extending SW along the TX coast to near Corpus Christi. A squall line is moving SE over the NW Gulf of Mexico from 29N91W to 24N98W, containing scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms. This squall line will likely produce strong winds and heavy rains over portions of the NW Gulf into tonight, but dissipate by Sun morning. Otherwise, E to SE winds ahead of the squall line over the central and eastern Gulf will diminish tonight. Low pressure may be near Louisiana on Sun and drag a weak cold front across the northern Gulf Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered north of the area is leading to generally dry conditions over most of the Caribbean, aside from a few showers over the Lesser Antilles. Strong trades over the central and portions of eastern Caribbean prevail, with earlier scatterometer data indicated locally strong winds also occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail over the rest of the Caribbean. A 1008 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N75W. The high pressure to the north of the region will weaken and shift eastward through Monday. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea near Venezuela and Colombia through Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Depression One has formed north of the Bahamas. Please refer to the Special Features section above for details. A 1027 mb high is located E of Bermuda near 33N55W. A cold front has now stalled over the central Atlantic from 31N39W to 26N46W to 31N57W. This front will dissipate tonight. $$ KONARIK