000 AXNT20 KNHC 161030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 26N79.5W, east of Miami Florida. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the low pressure center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers are elsewhere from 23N to 30N between 70W and 80W. Gradual development of the low pressure center is expected. It is likely that the system may become a subtropical depression later today. The low is forecast to pass through the northwestern Bahamas, and move north-northeastward in Atlantic Ocean waters, east of Florida. The disturbance will continue to bring heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds to the northern Bahamas through this evening. Hazardous marine conditions will continue off the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas. Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are also possible along parts of the southeast U.S.A. coast, during this weekend and early in the next week. Please read weather bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office, and the High Seas Forecasts, for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this morning, if necessary. The chance of formation of a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is high. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N26W, to 05N30W, to 03N44W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 03N to 07N between 12W and 26W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 48W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is over Florida. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N87W. A broad surface ridge extends from central Georgia to the west central Gulf of Mexico. Strong thunderstorms and heavy rain showers are in central and eastern Texas. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and scattered rain showers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 23N northward from 86W westward. E to SE winds across most of the Gulf of Mexico will diminish today as the ridge over the NE Gulf weakens. Low pressure may develop near Louisiana on Sun and drag a weak cold front across the northern Gulf Monday through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface low pressure covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward between the Windward Passage and the Yucatan Channel. The trough of low pressure is related to the 1009 mb low near Miami Florida. Lingering rain showers are apparent off the coast of Cuba. Rain showers are possible elsewhere, from 70W eastward, in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds. High pressure to the north of the region will weaken, and shift eastward through Monday. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea near Venezuela and Colombia through Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N41W, to 29N47W. The front continues as a stationary front from 29N47W to 25N60W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 240 nm to the north of the frontal boundary, from 60W eastward. The current 1009 mb low pressure center, that is east of Miami Florida, will move slowly NE across the Bahamas today, to near 30N77W on Sunday. The low pressure center is expected to be to the north of the area on Monday. Gradual development of the low is expected. It is likely the feature may become a subtropical depression north of the Bahamas. Strong gusty winds are possible near the Bahamas as the system develops. $$ mt/dbm