000 AXNT20 KNHC 160558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 25N80W, off the coast of South Florida. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the low pressure center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N to 30N between 70W and 80W. Other broken to overcast multilayered clouds and rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward between 65W and 70W. Gradual development of the low pressure center still is expected. It is likely that the system may become a tropical depression or a subtropical depression, or a storm, on Saturday. The low pressure center is forecast to pass through the northwestern Bahamas, and move north-northeastward in the Atlantic Ocean waters to the east of Florida. The disturbance will continue to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds in parts of southeastern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through Saturday. Hazardous marine conditions will continue off the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas, for which gale-force wind warnings have been issued. Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents also are possible along parts of the southeast U.S.A. coast, during this weekend and early in the next week. Please read weather bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office, and the High Seas Forecasts, for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow morning, if necessary. The chance of formation of a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is high. ...GALE WARNING... Expect frequent gusts to gale-force, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, for the next 24 hours or so, from 24N to 30N between 67W and 80W. These conditions are related to the 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 25N80W, along the SE coast of Florida. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N26W, to 06N30W, 04N36W, and 03N43W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 17W and 21W, and from 120 nm to 225 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 38W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is on top of Florida. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N87W. A broad surface ridge extends from central Georgia into the central Gulf of Mexico, and to the west central Gulf of Mexico. A surface frontal boundary is in the central United States, through southern Missouri and Arkansas, into Oklahoma. A surface trough is in northern Texas. A surface low pressure center is in SE New Mexico. Strong rainshowers are in central Texas. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 23N northward from 86W westward. The current 1009 mb low pressure center that is off the coast of SE Florida near 25N80W will move slowly, northeastward, over the Bahamas tonight and on Saturday. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will decrease through Saturday, as a ridge in the NE Gulf of Mexico weakens. It is possible that a low pressure center may develop near Louisiana on Sunday, and drag a weak cold front across the northern Gulf of Mexico from Monday through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface low pressure covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward between the Windward Passage and the Yucatan Channel. The low pressure is related to the 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 25N80W off the coast of SE Florida. Warming cloud top temperatures, and weakening but possibly lingering rainshowers are apparent, off the coast of Cuba on the Caribbean Sea side, between 77W and 82W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 70W eastward, in areas of scattered to broken low level clouds. The 24-hour rainfall total, in inches, for the period ending at 16/0000 UTC, for Guadeloupe is: 0.02. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, for the period ending at 15/1200 UTC are: 1.51 for Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.72 for Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.45 in Kingston in Jamaica, and 0.02 in San Juan in Puerto Rico and in Guadeloupe. High pressure to the north of the region will weaken, and shift eastward through Monday. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea near Venezuela and Colombia through Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N41W, to 29N47W. The front becomes stationary, and the front continues from 29N47W to 25N59W and to 26N66W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 240 nm to the north of the frontal boundary, from 60W eastward. The current 1009 mb low pressure center, that is off the coast of SE Florida, will move slowly NE across the Bahamas tonight and Saturday, to near 30N77W on Sunday. The low pressure center is expected to be to the north of the area on Monday. Gradual development of the 1009 mb low pressure center is expected. It is likely that the feature may become a tropical depression or a subtropical depression north of the Bahamas. Frequent gusts to gale-force are possible near the Bahamas, as the system develops. $$ mt