900 AXNT20 KNHC 152251 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 651 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the trough of low pressure located over the Straits of Florida has generally changed little today. This system continues to produce a large area of disorganized shower activity and gusty winds across the Florida Keys, portions of southeast Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas. Gradual development of this system is still expected, and it will likely become a tropical or subtropical storm on Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic. Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring heavy rainfall and wind gusts to tropical-storm-force across portions of the Florida Keys, southeast Florida and the Bahamas through Saturday. In addition, hazardous marine conditions are expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale Warnings are in effect. Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are possible along portions of the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and early next week. See products from your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow morning, if necessary. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. ...GALE WARNING... Gale force winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected between the Bahamas and Florida through Sat. From 24N to 31N between 65W and 80W, SE winds of 25 to 35 kts will occur. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N14W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 06N between 14W and 20W and from 02N to 08N between 26W and 42W. Scattered moderate convection is between 01N and 09N between 20W and 26W. GULF OF MEXICO... Radar imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 180 nm S of the Louisiana coast. Otherwise, weak high pressure dominates. A ridge extending into the NE Gulf will generate fresh to strong E to SE winds E of 90W tonight and Sat, then winds will decrease to between light and gentle as the ridge over the Gulf weakens. Low pressure may develop near Louisiana Sun and drag a weak cold front across the northern Gulf Mon through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fair weather and weak high pressure dominates the Caribbean this evening. High pressure north of the region will weaken and shift eastward through Mon. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean near Venezuela and Colombia through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Radar and satellite imagery depict scattered moderate convection over the northwest Bahamas, waters between the Bahamas and Florida, and between the Bahamas and Bermuda associated with the special feature described above. A 1027 mb high pressure is centered just E of Bermuda near 34N63W. A stationary front is located from 31N44W to 25N66W. Convection associated with this dissipating front has diminished. $$ KONARIK