000 AXNT20 KNHC 151754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure located over the Straits of Florida continues to produce disorganized shower activity and gusty winds across the Florida Keys, portions of SE Florida, and the NW Bahamas. Gradual development of the system is expected, and it will likely become a tropical storm on Saturday when it is located near the NW Bahamas. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to move generally NE over the western Atlantic. Expect periods of heavy rainfall in parts of the Florida Keys, southeastern Florida, and in the Bahamas, through Saturday. Wind gusts to gale force are possible in heavier showers during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions are expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas. Please refer to weather bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts, for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow. The chance of formation of a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is high. ...GALE WARNING... Expect gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, in the Straits of Florida, between the Bahamas and southern Florida for the next 24 hours or so. The current forecast consists of: E winds 25 to 35 knots from 24N to 30N between 64W and 80W. Sea heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N14W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 06W-20W. Similar convection is from 02N-08N between 26W-54W. GULF OF MEXICO... Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection over S Florida and the Straits of Florida. See above. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of Louisiana N of 27N between 89W-94W due to an upper level trough. A ridge extending into the NE Gulf will maintain fresh to strong E to SE winds E of 90W today. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the rest of basin through Sun. Low pressure may develop near Louisiana Sun and drag a weak cold front across the northern Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are along the coasts of N Colombia and Panama. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Caribbean. High pressure north of the region will weaken and shift eastward through Sun. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean near Venezuela and Colombia through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection over the W Atlantic from 21N-29N between 70W-80W. See above. A 1029 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 34N64W. A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N46W to 28N60W. A stationary front continues from 28N60W to 24N70W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. A 1029 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 33N30W. $$ Formosa