000 AXNT20 KNHC 151030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure is expected to form near the Bahamas during the next 24 hours. It is likely that this low pressure center may become a tropical storm or a subtropical storm, by late tonight or Saturday, near the northwestern Bahamas. This weather system is expected to move generally northeastward, in the western Atlantic Ocean, later in the weekend and early in the next week. Expect periods of heavy rainfall in parts of the Florida Keys, southeastern Florida, and in the Bahamas, through Saturday. Wind gusts to gale force are possible in heavier showers during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions are expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas. Please refer to weather bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts, for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT today, or earlier, if necessary. The chance of formation of a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is high. ...GALE WARNING... Expect frequent gusts to gale-force, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, in the Straits of Florida, between the Bahamas and southern Florida for the next 24 hours or so. The current forecast consists of: E winds 20 to 25 knots, with frequent gusts to 35 kt, from 24N to 28N between 75W and 82W. Sea heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet, with the highest values expected in the Straits of Florida. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N14W, to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 05N30W, to 01N42W, and 01N48W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 07N southward between 24W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from the monsoon trough southward from 20W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A shear line previously in the Straits of Florida, is no longer evident, and has dissipated. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 25N between the SE Bahamas to 81W in the Straits of Florida. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other isolated rainshowers cover the areas that are from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 31N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 63W in the Atlantic Ocean and 83W in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model for 250 mb, and water vapor satellite imagery, show a north-to-south oriented trough that is moving through Mississippi and Louisiana. Precipitation: Numerous moderate to strong within 90 nm to the north of the Gulf coast between 88W in Mississippi and 93W in Louisiana. A ridge extending into the NE Gulf of Mexico will maintain fresh to strong E to SE winds E of 90W this morning. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the rest of the basin through Sunday. It is possible that a low pressure center may develop near Louisiana on Sunday, and drag a weak cold front across the northern Gulf of Mexico early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front continues north of Cuba from 25N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the southern Bahamas, to a 1012 mb low pressure over Cuba near 23N83W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 25N between the SE Bahamas to 81W in the Straits of Florida. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other isolated rainshowers cover the areas that are from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 31N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 63W in the Atlantic Ocean and 83W in the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure to the north of the region will weaken and shift eastward through Sunday. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea near Venezuela and Colombia through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N47W, to 26N60W. A stationary front continues from 26N60W to 24N77W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 25N between the SE Bahamas to 81W in the Straits of Florida. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other isolated rainshowers cover the areas that are from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 31N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 63W in the Atlantic Ocean and 83W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 26N55W 21N59W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N to 27N between 51W and 64W. An upper level trough is along 30N40W 25N45W 20N45W 13N52W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward from 25W eastward. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A trough expected to form off the southern coast of Florida this morning, will move northward today, with a low pressure center developing along the trough axis near the northern Bahamas. It is likely that the system may become a tropical depression or a subtropical depression during the upcoming weekend, as it moves NE in the western Atlantic Ocean. Frequent gusts to gale-force are possible near and north of the Bahamas during the next two days. $$ mt/dbm