000 AXNT20 KNHC 150603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu May 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure is forecast to form in the Straits of Florida during the next 24 hours. It is likely that this low pressure center may become a tropical storm or a subtropical storm, by late Friday or Saturday, when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. This weather system is expected to move generally northeastward, in the western Atlantic Ocean, later in the weekend and early in the next week. Expect heavy rainfall in parts of the Florida Keys, southeastern Florida, and in the Bahamas, through Saturday. Tropical storm-force wind gusts are possible also in parts of the Florida Keys, southeastern Florida, and the Bahamas, during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions are expected along the Florida east coast; and in the Bahamas where gale-force winds are forecast. Please read weather bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office, and the High Seas Forecasts, for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today on Friday, if it is necessary. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Friday, or earlier, if it is necessary. The chance of formation of a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is high. ...GALE WARNING... Expect frequent gusts to gale-force, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, in the Straits of Florida, for the next 24 hours or so. The current overall forecast consists of: NE to E winds 20 to 30 knots, in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Atlantic Ocean, from 24N to 28N between 69W and 83W. Sea heights will range from 8 feet to 10 feet, with the comparatively highest values expected in the Straits of Florida. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N14W, to 07N17W and to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 05N28W, to 01N40W, and 01N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is: from 07N southward between 24W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from the monsoon trough southward from 20W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A shear line continues from 24N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the southern Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 25N between the SE Bahamas to 81W in the Straits of Florida. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other isolated rainshowers cover the areas that are from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 31N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 63W in the Atlantic Ocean and 83W in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model for 250 mb, and water vapor satellite imagery, show a north-to-south oriented trough that is moving through Mississippi and Louisiana. Precipitation: Numerous strong within 90 nm to the north of the Gulf coast between 88W in Mississippi and 93W in Louisiana. The current shear line in the Straits of Florida will weaken and dissipate overnight. A ridge extending into the NE Gulf of Mexico will maintain fresh to strong E to SE winds E of 90W overnight. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the rest of the basin through Sunday. It is possible that a low pressure center may develop near Louisiana on Sunday, and drag a weak cold front across the northern Gulf of Mexico early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line continues from 24N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the southern Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 25N between the SE Bahamas to 81W in the Straits of Florida. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other isolated rainshowers cover the areas that are from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 31N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 63W in the Atlantic Ocean and 83W in the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure to the north of the region will weaken and shift eastward through Sunday. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea near Venezuela and Colombia through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N48W, to 27N56W, to 26N63W. A stationary front continues from 26N63W to 24N73W. A shear line continues from 24N73W, across the southern Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 25N between the SE Bahamas to 81W in the Straits of Florida. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other isolated rainshowers cover the areas that are from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 31N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 63W in the Atlantic Ocean and 83W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 26N55W 21N59W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N to 27N between 51W and 64W. An upper level trough is along 30N40W 25N45W 20N45W 13N52W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward from 25W eastward. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A trough will form off the southern coast of Florida overnight. The trough will move northward on Friday, as a low pressure center develops near the northern Bahamas. It is likely that the system may become a tropical depression or a subtropical depression during the upcoming weekend, as it moves NE in the western Atlantic Ocean. Frequent gusts to gale-force are possible near and north of the Bahamas during the next two days. $$ mt