000 AXNT20 KNHC 141717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Increasing cloudiness along with areas of numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the Straits of Florida and western Atlantic waters south of 27N and west of 70W, including the vicinity of the Bahamas. In addition, a very tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure ridging centered off the eastern seaboard and a stationary front that extends from east- northeast of the Bahamas west-southwestward across the central Bahamas and to Straits of Florida is producing strong northeast to east winds reaching to near gale force over these waters as is presently being noted in both buoy and ship observations. These winds are forecast to acquire frequent gusts to gale force beginning this evening and into Fri morning. A gale warning for frequent gusts is in effect for the waters south of 27N and west of 74W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for development for the aforementioned area of cloudiness and precipitation, and this system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm this weekend when it is located near or north of the northwestern Bahamas. The system is forecast to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of southeastern Florida and the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next couple of days. It has a medium chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 04N29W to 00N39W to 00N49W. An area of scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 02N-07N between 20N- 27N. There is another area of scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ from 01S-06N between 34W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level westerly wind flow spans across the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, the stationary front in the Straits of Florida has dissipated. Meanwhile, surface ridging continues across the basin. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection has moved off the middle Texas coast and into the NW Gulf from 26N-30N between 92W-97W. Scattered showers continue near the SW Florida coast. Moderate to fresh ESE winds are noted across the eastern Gulf with gentle to moderate SE winds in the western Gulf. Seas are up to 9 ft in the eastern Gulf. A weakening stationary front over the Straits of Florida will dissipate later today. A high pressure ridge extending into the NE Gulf will maintain fresh to strong E to SE winds E of 90W through tonight. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the rest of the basin through Sun. Low pressure may develop near Louisiana on Sun and pull a weak cold front across the northern Gulf on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough is analyzed in the NW Caribbean from 17N85W to SW Cuba near 22N82W. Scattered moderate convection is seen moving across Cuba from 20N-22N between 77W-80W. Isolated moderate convection is in the SW Gulf S of 12N between 76W-83W. Otherwise, scattered showers are moving across the rest of the basin. Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the central and eastern basin with seas up to 8 ft. High pressure will persist north of the region through tonight, then shift eastward and weaken Fri into this weekend. Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the south-central Caribbean through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A shearline is present over the western Atlantic and the Straits of Florida from 25N70W to 24N84W. Fresh to strong NE winds are north of the shearline with light to gentle winds to the south of this feature. A stationary front begins from 25N70W to 26N64W to 31N54W. Moderate to fresh NNE winds are north of the front. Scattered moderate convection is seen from the Straits of Florida and throughout the Bahamas from 21N-25N between 71W-81W. Showers are seen along the stationary front W of 71W. To the east of the stationary front, a trough is analyzed from 28N56W to 21N59W. No significant convection is associated with this feature. High pressure dominates the rest of the Atlantic anchored by a 1028 mb high near 33N30W. A weakening stationary front extending across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida will dissipate today, with a shear line expected to linger in this region into early Fri. Fresh to strong E winds and building seas will continue over the waters N of 22N through Fri, with gale force gusts likely near the Bahamas tonight into Fri as a surface trough develops off the southern coast of Florida. Low pressure is expected to form near the Bahamas by early Sat, and this system will likely develop into a subtropical depression or storm this weekend as it moves NE over the western Atlantic. $$ AReinhart/Aguirre