000
AXNT20 KNHC 141031 RRA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
805 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 
the Equator along 37W, to the Equator along 49W. Precipitation: 
scattered moderate isolated strong is from 02N to 05N between 
32W and 51w. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward 
from 60W eastward. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level westerly wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 
stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 28N61W, 
and it continues to 24N70W, across the southern Bahamas, through 
the Straits of Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W. 
Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong is from 18N in the 
Caribbean Sea to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 70W in the 
Atlantic Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate 
is from 25N northward from 90W westward.

The current stationary front will weaken and then dissipate in 
the Gulf of Mexico later today. A ridge extending into the NE 
Gulf will maintain fresh to strong E to SE winds E of 90W 
through tonight. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail in the 
rest of basin through the weekend. Low pressure may develop near 
Louisiana on Sun and drag a weak cold front across the northern 
Gulf on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is north of the area in the Atlantic Ocean 
across the southern Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, and 
into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W. Precipitation: Scattered 
moderate to strong is from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 28N in 
the Atlantic Ocean, between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 87W in 
the Gulf of Mexico. 

High pressure will strengthen north of the region through Sat. 
Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the south-central 
Caribbean during the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 32N52W, 
to 24N70W, across the southern Bahamas, through the Straits of 
Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W. A surface 
trough is along 28N54W to 21N57W. Precipitation: Isolated 
moderate from 21N northward between 50W and 70W, with the front. 
Scattered moderate to strong is from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 
28N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 
87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, 
within 240 nm to the east of the surface trough, and within 120 
nm to the west of the surface trough. 

A dissipating eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 
the coastal sections of the Western Sahara near 23N16W, to 
24N28W. Precipitation: no significant convective precipitation 
is apparent in satellite imagery.  

The current stationary front will weaken across the Bahamas 
later today. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic 
Ocean through Fri, resulting in fresh to strong E winds and 
building seas over the waters N of 22N. It is likely that an 
area of low pressure will form near the Bahamas early on 
Saturday. It is possible that the low pressure center may 
develop into a subtropical depression during the upcoming 
weekend, while moving NE in the western Atlantic Ocean. 

$$
mt/dbm