000
AXNT20 KNHC 131030
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
805 AM EDT Tue May 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea 
and Sierra Leone near 10N13W to 06N15W to 05N26W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N26W to the Equator along 35W, to 02N42W, to 
the Equator along 50W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to 
strong is west of Sierra Leone and Liberia from 03N to 08N 
between 13W and 24W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated 
strong is from 10N southward between 40W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is along 89W. Broad upper level cyclonic 
wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: rain showers 
are from 25N southward.

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through 
Fri as an old cold front remains stalled across central Cuba and 
the NW Caribbean. Southerly return flow will prevail across the 
western part of the basin.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level W and SW wind flow covers the western half of the 
Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and comparatively 
drier air in subsidence, cover the Caribbean Sea east of a line 
from 20N64W to the Gulf of Venezuela. Precipitation: broken to 
overcast low level clouds and possible rain showers are from 15N 
southward and 65W eastward, from 14N northward and 64W westward.

A weak pressure gradient, associated with a trough that is to 
the north of the area, will prevail through Thu. A small area of 
fresh to strong trade winds is expected in the south central 
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N60W about 
210 nm of Bermuda, to 27N65W, to Andros Island in the Bahamas. A 
shear line continues from Andros Island in the Bahamas, to the 
northern coast of Cuba near 23N80W. Precipitation: broken to 
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are within 
400 nm SSE of the cold front. The 24-hour rainfall total, in 
inches, for Bermuda, for the period ending at 13/0000 UTC, was 
0.26.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N16W, to 
30N21W, to 30N35W. Precipitation: rain showers are possible from 
27N northward between 20W and 40W.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will will move 
eastward today, then become nearly stationary through Thu. An 
area of low pressure is expected to form NE of the Bahamas on 
Fri nigh. Expect active weather in the forecast area during the 
upcoming weekend.

$$
mt/dbm