414 
AXNT20 KNHC 122153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
553 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
08.5N13W to 05N24W. The ITCZ extends from 05N24W to the coast of 
Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 12W and 17W, from 06N
to 08N between 15W and 18W, and from the equator to 10N between
42W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging extends from 1026 mb high pressure SE of the coast of
Charleston, South Carolina to across the NE Gulf to the SW Gulf
near 21N95W. Earlier scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh
return flow across the basin, except locally to strong in the SE
portion including through the Straits of Florida. Water vapor 
imagery and streamline analysis indicates zonal flow across the
basin with dry air in place, except across the far northern Gulf N
of 28N where a more moist air mass is present.

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through the
week, weakening somewhat this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure ridging NE of the basin and low pressure over
northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades in the
south-central Carribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere
in the central and eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds
in the western Caribbean. The tail end of an old frontal boundary
is noted in the far NW Caribbean extending from central Cuba to
just S of the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are noted near this feature, with mainly fair skies across the
waters of the remainder of the basin, except in the SW Caribbean
where isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this
evening.

Surface troughing will prevail N of the area through the week 
resulting in a weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean. This 
will support a small area of fresh to strong trades across south 
central Caribbean. The pressure gradient will tigthen somewhat
this weekend, expanding the aerial coverage of fresh to strong
trades, and increasing winds to fresh to strong in the Gulf of
Honduras region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is noted from just SE of Bermuda to across the
central Bahamas and central Cuba while a trailing cold front is
noted just to the W, from just NW of Bermuda to the northern
Bahamas and the Florida Keys. Scatterometer data showed moderate
to fresh winds behind the frontal boundaries, except fresh to
strong from the northern and central Bahamas through the Straits
of Florida. Mainly moderate to fresh return flow is noted E of the
stationary front to 60W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted SE of the stationary front to the vicinity
of 65W. Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the open
Atlantic tropical waters, with a weak frontal boundary
interrupting the ridge from 32N30W to 32N40W. Isolated to
scattered showers can be found in the general trade wind flow.

The cold front will gradually merge with the stationary front 
this evening, then the merged front will move SE and reach from 
28N65W to central Cuba by Wed, and remain nearly stationary 
through Thu. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. 
Low pressure and active weather are expected to form NE of the 
Bahamas Fri night through the upcoming weekend.

$$
Lewitsky