000
AXNT20 KNHC 121739
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W 
to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to the coast of Brazil 
near 01N50W. Scattered showers are noted about 250 nm southeast 
of the monsoon trough near the coast of Sierra Leone and 
Liberia. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ and 
within 200 nm N of the ITCZ mainly west of 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends from near Naples, Florida 
to 26N88W. A surface ridge is starting to build across the basin.
Fresh to strong winds prevail across the northern Gulf. Moderate 
to fresh return flow is noted over the far NW waters, and gentle 
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Water vapor imagery 
indicates the presence of drier air mass across the basin, with 
limited shower activity. 

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through the
week as an old cold front stalls across central Cuba and the NW 
Caribbean. Southerly return flow will prevail across the western
part of the basin. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the southern Caribbean E of 
76W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. To the 
southwest, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along 
the coast of Panama and Costa Rica with most of the strong 
convection south in the eastern Pacific. A 1010 mb low pressure 
is noted over northern Colombia and a surface trough extending 
westward across Costa Rica. Otherwise, isolated showers are 
embedded within the trade wind flow.

Surface trough will prevail N of the area through the middle of 
the week resulting in a weak pressure gradient over the 
Caribbean. This will support a small area of fresh to strong 
trades across s central Caribbean. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1500 UTC, a reinforcing cold front extends across the far 
West Atlantic from 31N69W to the Florida Keys. To the east, a 
stationary front remains over the area extending from 26N72W to 
the NW Cuba. ASCAT indicate a surface trough in the southern 
Bahamas from 26N70W to 19N74W. Scattered showers prevail in the
vicinity of trough with isolated activity along the stationary 
and cold front. Fresh to strong winds prevail W of Andros Islands
along the Florida Straits. Surface ridging prevails across the 
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered near
37N40W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of
the waters N of 23N. Moderate to fresh trades and 6-9 ft seas 
prevail S of 20N. Isolated showers are embedded within the trade
wind flow. 

The reinforcing cold front will gradually merge with the 
stationary front this evening then, the merged front will move 
SE and reach from 28N65W to central Cuba by Wed, and remain 
nearly stationary through Thu. High pressure will build in the 
wake of the front. Low pressure and active weather is expected 
to form NE of the Bahamas Fri night through the upcoming weekend.

$$
MTorres