000
AXNT20 KNHC 121030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N16W 
to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 08N26W to the coast of Brazil 
near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm
N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ west of 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida 
to 26N86W. A surface ridge is starting to build across the basin.
Fresh to strong winds prevail across the far SE Gulf, including
across the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh return flow is noted
over the far NW waters, and gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Water vapor imagery indicates a dry airmass prevails
across the basin, with limited shower activity. 

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through the
week. Southerly return flow will prevail across the western part 
of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from W Cuba to Honduras. Scattered 
showers prevail in the vicinity of the trough mainly west of 76W. 
Fresh to strong winds prevail across the southern caribbean E of 
76W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. To the southwest,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted S of 12N and W of 
80W to across western Panama, Costa Rica, and SE Nicaragua. 
Otherwise, isolated showers are embedded within the tradewind 
flow.

Surface troughing will prevail N of the area through the middle 
of the week resulting in a weak pressure gradient over the 
Caribbean. This will result in a small area of fresh to strong 
trades across south central Caribbean. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the far west Atlantic from 31N75W to
near Port St Lucie, Florida. To the east, a 1016 mb surface low 
is centered near 29N72W, with a trough extending from the low to 
W Cuba. Fresh to strong winds prevail W of Andros Islands across 
the Florida Straits. Scattered showers prevail in the vicinity of
the low and trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder
of the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 30N38W.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the
waters N of 20N. Moderate to fresh trades and 6-9 ft seas prevail
S of 20N. Isolated showers are embedded within the tradewind flow. 

The low will shift NE along the front, moving N of the area 
today. The fronts will merge by this time also. The merged front 
will move SE and reach from 28N65W to central Cuba by Wed, and 
remain nearly stationary through Thu. High pressure will build 
in the wake of the front. A new low pressure may form NE of the 
Bahamas this weekend.

$$
AL/ERA