000
AXNT20 KNHC 120508
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N16W 
to 07N21W to 04N28W. The ITCZ extends from 04N28W to the coast 
of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
within 200 nm on either sides of the ITCZ mainly west of 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends across the northeast portion of the 
basin from 28N83W to 26N88W. A surface ridge is building across 
the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered north of the 
front near 30N88W. Scatterometer data depicted moderate to fresh 
NE-E flow across the basin, except in the SE Gulf where fresh to 
strong NE winds were noted due to a tight pressure gradient with 
low pressure SE of the area near the SW coast of Cuba.

The fresh to strong winds in the SE Gulf will persist through
early Wed. High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters
through the week. Southerly return flow will prevail across the 
western part of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1013 mb surface low is centered over the NW Caribbean near 
20N83W. A surface trough extends southwest from the low to 
16N84W. Scattered showers prevail in the vicinity of the 
low/trough mainly west of 76W. Gentle to moderate winds are 
noted behind the low/trough, with stronger winds near and north 
of the Yucatan Channel. An area of moderate to fresh easterly 
winds prevail across the south central Caribbean south of 15N. 
To the southwest, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted 
from the S of 12N and W of 80W to across western Panama, Costa 
Rica, and SE Nicaragua.

The area of low pressure across the NW Caribbean will drift south
and weaken to a trough through Tue. Expect scattered showers and 
thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean during this time. 
Elsewhere, surface troughing will prevail N of the area through 
the middle of the week resulting in a weak pressure gradient 
over the Caribbean. This will result in a small area of fresh to 
strong trades across south central Caribbean. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary extends across the far west Atlantic from 
31N77W to 29N81W. To the east, a 1015 mb surface low is centered 
near 29N72W, with stationary front extending from 31N67W to the 
low to 23N80W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are NW 
of the stationary front, with moderate SE winds are noted ahead 
of the front. Scattered showers prevail in the vicinity of these 
features between 68W-77W. Surface ridging prevails across the 
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 
38N43W. Mainly moderate to fresh trades and 6-9 ft seas prevail 
S of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail 
elsewhere N of 20N.

The low will shift NE along the front, moving N of the area 
today. The fronts will merge by this time also. The merged front 
will move SE and reach from 28N65W to central Cuba by Wed, and 
remain nearly stationary through Thu. High pressure will build 
in the wake of the front. A new low pressure may form NE of the 
Bahamas this weekend.

$$

ERA