000
AXNT20 KNHC 112133
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
533 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W 
to 03N29W. The ITCZ extends from 03N29W to the coast of Brazil 
near 00N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted along the African coast to the equator east of 14W. Isolated
to scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to
07N between 33W and Brazil. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from near Jacksonville, Florida to the
NE Gulf near 29N83W to 28N90W, continuing as a stationary front 
to near Galveston Bay, Texas. This front interrupts a ridge of 
high pressure extending from southern Alabama and Mississippi to 
near Tampico, Mexico. A weak surface trough is noted from just S 
of Tampico, Mexico across the Bay of Campeche to near 19N91W. 
Scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh NE-E flow across the 
basin, except in the SE Gulf where fresh to strong NE winds were 
noted due to a tight pressure gradient with low pressure SE of the
area near the S-central coast of Cuba. Outside of an isolated 
shower or thunderstorms mainly clear conditions prevail.

The fresh to strong winds in the SE Gulf will persist through
early Wed. High pres will shift E into the W Atlc Wed through Fri
to produce moderate to fresh return flow across the basin. These
conditions will persist into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Low pressure at 1014 mb is located near the S-central coast of
Cuba near 21.5N8W with a trailing trough extending S-SW to the NE
coast of Honduras near 16N85W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted within 120 nm E-SE of the trough. Gentle to moderate
winds are noted behind this trough, with stronger winds near and N
of the Yucatan Channel. Additional scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are noted from the SW Caribbean S of 12N and W of 
80W to across western Panama, Costa Rica, and SE Nicaragua. Low 
pressure at 1009 mb is over northern Colombia near 09N74W with a 
trough extending SW-W into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are in the vicinity of this trough as 
well as in the N semicircle of the low. The pressure gradient 
between the low and high pressure NE of the basin is supporting 
fresh to locally strong trades in the central Caribbean per recent
scatterometer data, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere SE of
the trough in the NW Caribbean.

The area of low pressure in the NW Caribbean will drift S and 
weaken to a trough through Tue. Strong winds across the Yucatan 
Channel will persist through late Tue. Expect scattered showers 
and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean during this time. 
Elsewhere, surface troughing will prevail N of the area through 
the middle of the week resulting in a weak pressure gradient over 
the Caribbean, and yield a small area of fresh to strong trades 
across south central portions. The fresh to strong trades will
expand in aerial coverage this weekend as the pressure gradient
tightens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from just S of Bermuda to 1016 mb low
pressure NE of the Bahamas near 27.5N75W continuing to the
N-central coast of Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are noted within 120-180 nm on either side
of the front, with additional shower and thunderstorm activity
over central and eastern Cuba aided by daytime heating. A cold
front has moved off the SE coast of the United States and extends
from 32N77W to near Jacksonville, Florida with no associated
showers or thunderstorms noted. Mainly moderate to locally
fresh northerly winds are NW of the stationary front, with
moderate to locally fresh SE winds ahead of the stationary front,
locally strong in the SE quadrant of the low. Surface ridging 
prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb
high centered near 32N37W. Mainly moderate to fresh trades and 6-9
ft seas prevail S of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft
seas prevail elsewhere N of 20N. 

The low will shift NE along the front through Tue and move out of
the area. The front will drift SE and reach from 28N65W to 
central Cuba by Wed, and remain nearly stationary through Thu. 
High pressure will shift off the SE U.S. coast in the wake of the 
front, to produce strong winds north of the front through Fri. Low
pressure may form NE of the Bahamas Sat.
 
$$
Lewitsky