000 AXNT20 KNHC 111711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 03N29W. The ITCZ extends from 03N29W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along the African coast south of the monsoon trough from the Equator to 07N and east of 14W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 280 nm north of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure extends into the Gulf of Mexico with the stationary front east of the basin. ASCAT data showed north to northeast moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Gulf and light to moderate easterly flow in the western Gulf. In the Bay of Campeche, a surface trough is noted from 20N96W to 19N91W with scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough. Clear conditions prevail across the basin. High pressure will continue to build into the region today, and prevail through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Low pressure has moved into the western Caribbean with a 1014 mb low centered in western Cuba and a trough extending southwest to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is mainly east of the low pressure covering from the Gulf of Honduras north to the Cayman Islands across central Cuba and the Florida Straits. ASCAT data indicate fresh to strong easterly trades across the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh in the eastern portion of the basin and along the Lesser Antilles. To the SW, a 1010 mb low pressure is present over Colombia with a surface trough extending westward into the Eastern Pacific Ocean. At this time, a broad area of scattered moderate to strong convection are seen from the coast of Panama into Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Low pres will move from the NW Caribbean today and drift southward while weakening. This is expected to aid in the development of scattered to numerous showers across the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, surface trough will prevail N of the area through the middle of the week resulting in a weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean and yield a small area of fresh to strong trades across south central portions. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N57W to 28N69W to a 1015 mb low pressure centered over the NW Bahamas. The stationary front continues south to a second low over western Cuba. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the low and to the east as well, between 66W-79W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 32N37W. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail south of 20N and gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4-7 ft range prevail elsewhere N of 20N. Isolated showers are embedded within the trade wind flow. Low pressure between S Florida and the Bahamas will shift NNE today, moving N of the area Mon night. The low will drag a cold front across the forecast waters through Tue. Strong to near gale force SW winds near the low will impact the north central waters this afternoon and evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect the Bahamas and adjacent waters today. High pres will build in the wake of the front. $$ MTorres