000 AXNT20 KNHC 111027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 627 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning in the SW N Atlantic: Low pressure currently between South Florida and the Bahamas near 25N79W will low track NNE. A brief gale is possible over the north central waters this afternoon. This low will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that will affect the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters today. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 04N28W. The ITCZ extends from 04N28W to the coast of Brazil near 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to a 1013 mb in the Yucatan Channel with surface trough extending from the low into the NW Caribbean. Scattered to numerous showers continue to impact the far SE Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits. To the west, a surface trough extends along 21N/22N between 92W- 97W. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas in the 5-7 ft range, are noted NW of the surface low in the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the NE Gulf, with 4-5 ft seas elsewhere. The low pres in the Yucatan channel will drift SE today while gradually weakening. Scattered showers will continue to impact the SE Gulf early today. High pres will start to build into the region today, and prevail through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure N of the area has weakened as surface troughing is starting to prevail. This has loosened the pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters. Aerial coverage of fresh to strong winds is now mainly over the south central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western Caribbean. Low pres will move from the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean today. This will help for scattered to numerous showers across the NW Caribbean. The low will drift southward today while weakening. Elsewhere, surface troughing will prevail N of the area through the middle of the week with a weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean. This will result in a small area of fresh to strong trades across the south central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features above for more details about the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N52W to 27N63W, then becomes stationary to an area of low pres that has developed just E of S Florida near 25N79W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the low as well as the stationary front. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 34N57W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas in the 6-8 ft range, prevail N of the stationary front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail N of Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4-7 ft range prevail elsewhere N of 20N. S of 20N, moderate to fresh tradewinds with seas in the 6-8 ft range prevail. Isolated showers are embedded within the tradewind flow. The area of low pressure between S Florida and the Bahamas will shift NNE today, moving N of the area tonight. The low will drag a cold front across the forecast waters through Tue. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect the Bahamas and adjacent waters today. High pres will build in the wake of the front. $$ AL/ERA