000 AXNT20 KNHC 110505 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 AM EDT Mon May 11 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall Event: Tonight into early Monday, A complex weather pattern will prevail across the southeast Gulf of Mexico and the far western Atlantic as an upper level trough extending from the southeast United States to the east-central Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward across Florida and NW Caribbean into the western Atlantic. At the same time, surface low pressure northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula near 23N85W will move eastward across the SE Gulf through Monday. These features are currently supporting scattered moderate convection over the SE Gulf of Mexico, the NW Caribbean, Cuba, south Florida and the Florida Keys/Straits. This activity will move slowly eastward bringing the potential for flash flooding over the mountainous terrain of western Cuba. Please refer to your local weather forecast offices for more information. Gale Warning in the SW N Atlantic: Low pressure currently over the southeast Gulf of Mexico will move eastward into the western Atlantic Monday. Gale force winds associated with the low will affect the area NE of the Bahamas on Monday afternoon as the low tracks NE. This low will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that will affect the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters tonight through Mon evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 04N28W. The ITCZ extends from 04N28W to the coast of Brazil near 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either sides of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the heavy rainfall event. A stationary front extends from near the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to a 1014 mb low near 23N85W. A surface trough extends from the low into the NW Caribbean. To the west, scatterometer data depicted a surface trough extending along 22N between 89W- 97W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted north of the front, along with 4 to 6 ft seas, except 1 to 3 ft in the northeast Gulf. Water vapor satellite imagery shows very dry air moving in across the basin as surface ridging builds in the wake of the frontal system. The low pressure area will track east-northeast across the SE Gulf of Mexico tonight. High pressure will continue building across the basin and prevail through Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the heavy rainfall event. The pressure gradient between 1008 mb low pressure over northern Colombia and high pressure north of the Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean, and moderate winds over the western Caribbean. Scattered showers are embedded within this trade wind flow in the central and eastern Caribbean. High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean tonight. The aerial extent of the strong trades will decrease early Mon, and prevail over the south-central Caribbean for the remainder period. Active weather, with numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NW Caribbean tonight as a complex low just NE of the Yucatan Peninsula continues moving ENE across the SE Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features above for more details about the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic, along with the heavy rainfall event. A frontal system extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed as a cold front from 31N54W to 28N62W, then becomes stationary from that point to 25N80W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of these fronts mainly west of 66W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N39W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 22N and east of the front, with mainly fresh trades, pulsing to strong, S of 22N over the open waters of the tropical Atlantic. The front over the west Atlantic will gradually weaken through Mon. Low pressure in the SE Gulf of Mexico will move into the SW forecast waters tonight. The low will move NNE across the area before moving N of the area Mon night, while dragging a cold front across the forecast waters through Tue. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect the Bahamas and adjacent waters tonight through Mon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. $$ ERA