000 AXNT20 KNHC 102204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 604 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall Event: Tonight into early Monday, A complex weather pattern will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico and the far western Atlantic as an upper level trough extending from the southeast United States to the central Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward across Florida and NW Caribbean into the western Atlantic. At the same time, surface low pressure northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N91W will shift eastward across the SE Gulf reaching the Bahamas late tonight into Monday. These features are currently supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection over the SE Gulf of Mexico, the NW Caribbean, western Cuba, south Florida and the Florida Keys. This activity will move slowly eastward with persistent heavy rain bringing the potential for flash flooding over the mountainous terrain of western Cuba. Please refer to your local weather forecast offices for more information. Gale Warning in the SW N Atlantic: Low pressure currently over the south-central Gulf of Mexico will move eastward into the western Atlantic Monday. Gale force winds associated with the low will affect the area NE of the Bahamas he northern Bahamas Monday morning through Mon evening as the low tracks NE. This low will be accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms that will affect the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters tonight through Mon evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near Guinea Bissau and Guinea at 11N16W to 04N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 35W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 02N between 34W and 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the heavy rainfall event. A stationary front extends from near the Straits of Florida to north of the Yucatan Channel to 1013 mb low pressure northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N91W, with a trailing cold front along the coast of the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted by afternoon scatterometer data north of the front, along with 4 to 6 ft seas, except 1 to 3 ft in the northeast Gulf. Water vapor satellite imagery shows very dry air moving in across the basin west of 90W, with plentiful moisture to the east as described above. The low pressure area will track east-northeast across the SE Gulf of Mexico tonight. High pres will start to build into the region Monday in the wake of the front, and prevail through Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the heavy rainfall event. The pressure gradient between 1008 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near Cartagena and high pressure north of the Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean and moderate winds over the western Caribbean. Isolated showers are embedded within this trade wind flow in the central and eastern Caribbean. Low pressure of 1012 mb is over the NW Caribbean near 18N84W with scattered showers and thunderstorms noted within 180 nm of the low, mainly in the eastern semicircle. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central, and portions of the eastern Caribbean through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over most of the remainder of the basin. The aerial extent of the strong trades will decrease early on Mon, prevailing over the south-central Caribbean for the remainder period. Otherwise, tradewind swell is expected SE of the Windward Islands tonight through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features above for more details about the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic, along with the heavy rainfall event. A cold front extends from 31N57W to across the central Bahamas where it becomes stationary as it extends through the Straits of Florida. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are noted north of 21N and west of 70W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N38W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 22N and east of the front, with mainly fresh trades, pulsing to strong, S of 22N over the open waters of the tropical Atlantic. Isolated trade wind showers are embedded within the trade wind flow. The cold front will move E of the area tonight, however fresh to strong winds will continue and extend to the northern Bahamas as a complex low pressure in the SE Gulf of Mexico enters the central offshore waters early on Mon. The low will move N of the area Mon night, while dragging a cold front across the forecast waters through Tue. The front will stall from northeast to southwest across the SW N Atlantic through the middle of the week, with fresh to strong winds persisting north of the old boundary through the end of the week. Low pressure may develop along the remnants of the front by the end of the week, with these features potentially retrograding to the northwest. $$ Lewitsky