000 AXNT20 KNHC 101731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Today into early Monday: A complex weather pattern will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico and the far western Atlantic as an upper level trough, currently over the Gulf of Mexico, shifts eastward across Florida and Western Caribbean into the western Atlantic. At the same time, low pressure, currently over the SW Gulf will shift eastward across the SE Gulf today, reaching the Bahamas tonight. These features are currently supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection over the SE Gulf of Mexico, the Western Caribbean, western Cuba and the Florida Keys. This activity will move slowly eastward today, with widespread heavy rainfall across western Cuba, South Florida and the Bahamas today through late tonight. Persistent heavy rain will bring the potential for flash flooding over the mountainous terrain of western Cuba. Please refer to your local weather forecast offices for more information. ...Gale Warning SW N Atlantic... Low pressure that is currently over the SW Gulf will move eastward into the western Atlantic Monday. Gale force winds associated with the low will affect the area in the northern Bahamas Monday morning through Mon night as the low tracks NE. This will be accompany with numerous showers and tstorms that will affect the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters tonight through Mon evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near Guinea Bissau from 11N16W to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-08N between 15W-25W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 280 nm of the ITCZ W of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Tampa Bay to the NW Gulf. 1013 mb low pres is centered over the SW Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are noted north of the low pressure and east of 90W. In the SE Gulf, fresh to strong winds prevail into the Florida Straits. Overcast skies cover most of the eastern Gulf with scattered to moderate convection. Most of the heavy rainfall has moved into the western Caribbean at this time. Elsewhere, isolated showers are seen in the western Gulf associated to a surface trough extending northwest from the low pressure to 25N95W. In the remainder of the basin, in the latest Total Precipitable water and Water Vapor imagery shows much drier air mass has filtered into the northwest Gulf. Low pres centered just W of the northern Yucatan Peninsula will track ENE across the SE Gulf of Mexico today, with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms impacting this region, the Yucatan channel and the straits of Florida. The low will drag a weak frontal boundary across the SE Gulf through Mon. High pres will start to build into the region Mon, and prevail through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between 1010 mb Colombian low and high pressure north of the Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean and moderate winds over the western Caribbean. Isolated showers are embedded within this trade wind flow. The upper level trough across the Gulf of Mexico is enhancing moderate to isolated strong convection over the far western Caribbean. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central, and portions of the eastern Caribbean through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over most of the remainder of the basin. The aerial extent of the strong trades will decrease early on Mon, prevailing over the south- central Caribbean for the remainder period. Active weather, with numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NW Caribbean today and tonight as a complex low just W of the Yucatan Peninsula moves ENE across the SE Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, trade wind swell is expected SE of the Windward Islands tonight through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features above for more details about the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N59W to 28N70W, then continues as a stationary front across the Florida peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. Numerous showers over the Florida Straits are spreading eastward toward the Bahamas and western Atlantic. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 32N3W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail east of the front and fresh to strong are seen west around 66W. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail mainly south of 23N. Isolated trade wind showers are embedded within the trade wind flow. The front will move E of the area tonight, however fresh to strong winds will continue and extend to the northern Bahamas as a complex low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico enters the central offshore waters early on Mon. Gale force winds associated with the low will affect the north-central and NE offshore waters Mon morning through Mon night as the low tracks NE. The low will move N of the area Mon night, while dragging a cold front across the forecast waters through Tue night. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters tonight through Mon evening. $$ MTorres