000 AXNT20 KNHC 101034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 634 AM EDT Sun May 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Today into early Monday: A complex weather pattern will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico and the far western Atlantic as an upper level trough, currently over the Gulf of Mexico, shifts eastward across Florida into the western Atlantic. At the same time, low pressure, currently over the SW Gulf will shift eastward across the SE Gulf today, reaching the Bahamas tonight. These features are currently supporting scattered to numerous moderate convection over the SE Gulf of Mexico, the Western Caribbean, western Cuba and the Florida Keys. This activity will move slowly eastward today, with widespread heavy rainfall across western Cuba, South Florida and the Bahamas today through late tonight. Persistent heavy rain will bring the potential for flash flooding over the mountainous terrain of western Cuba. Please refer to your local weather forecast offices for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13.5N16W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-08N between 15W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 210 nm of the ITCZ W of 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Tampa Bay to the NW Gulf. Low pres is centered over the SW Gulf. Fresh to strong winds prevail just N of the Yucatan peninsula, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. A mid to upper level trough is moving across the Gulf waters. This is helping to enhance shower activity with scattered to numerous showers across the eastern half of the basin. The low will track eastward across the SE Gulf of Mexico today. This will continue to help for numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms impacting the SE Gulf today. The low will drag a weak frontal boundary across the SE Gulf through Mon. High pres will start to build into the region Mon, and prevail through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between 1010 mb Colombian low and high pressure north of the Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds over the western Caribbean. Isolated showers are embedded within this tradewind flow. The upper level trough across the Gulf of Mexico is enhancing shower activity over the far western Caribbean, with scattered to numerous moderate convection. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over most of the remainder of the basin. The aerial extent of the strong trades will decrease early this week, prevailing over the south- central Caribbean for the remainder period. Active weather, with numerous showers and thunderstorms, are expected to continue over the NW Caribbean today as a complex low over the SW Gulf of Mexico moves across the SE Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N65W to 28N75W, then continues as a stationary front across the Florida peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. Numerous showers over the Florida Straits are spreading eastward toward the Bahamas. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 31N38W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters W of 70W, with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere N of 20N. S of 20N, moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail. Isolated tradewind showers are embedded within the tradewind flow. The cold front over the west Atlantic will move across the waters N of 28N today. Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will track NE into the Bahamas tonight, enhancing winds and generating numerous showers and thunderstorms. The low will move N of the area Mon night, while dragging a cold front across the forecast waters. The front will move E of the area by Wed night. $$ AL/ERA