000 AXNT20 KNHC 100523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0517 UTC Sun May 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A low pressure system is developing over the southern Gulf of Mexico. At this time, a surface low is centered near 25N95W, with stationary front extending from the low to 27N82W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted over the Yucatan peninsula, Yucatan Channel, west Cuba, Belize, and west Honduras. This activity is expected to grow and move east affecting Cuba, South Florida and Bahamas today. The potential for heavy rainfall will continue through early Monday for these areas. Please refer to your local weather forecast offices for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N16W to 04N25W. The ITCZ extends from that point to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted i the vicinity of both boundaries mainly between 17W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal system extends across the basin, analyzed as a stationary front from 27N83W to 27N89W to a 1014 mb low near 25N95W. The front continues from the low to 21N97W, then continues NW across eastern Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the basin with these features. Over the Yucatan peninsula, a surface trough extends from 22N89W to 17N92W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted across the peninsula and adjacent waters south of 23N between 84W-90W. Refer to the section above for more details. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the northern half of the basin, while moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across the southern half. The front will transition back to a cold front Sun as the low to tracks NE toward South Florida. The low will track across the Florida straits late Sun, while the cold front will shift SE of the area Mon. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to impact most of the southern Gulf waters through Mon morning. High pres will build in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pressure gradient between the 1010 mb Colombian low and high pressure north of the Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh E trades across most of the basin. The exception is within 90 nm north of Colombia, where scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds. Peak seas are near 12 ft in the same location. The convection previously discussed over the Yucatan peninsula is also affecting the Yucatan channel, Central America, and NW Caribbean. Refer to the section above for more details. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and portions of the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds over most of the remainder of the basin through Sun night. The aerial extent of the strong trades will diminish and reduce to the south-central Caribbean for the remainder period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N69W to 28N80W, then continues west across the Florida peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. To the southeast, a weakening frontal system is analyzed as a stationary front from 30N49W to 28N66W, then continues as a surface trough from that point to 21N76W. Scattered showers are noted across the west Atlantic with these features mainly west of 60W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 28N42W. The moderate N-S pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZis causing NE trades ranging from gentle up to fresh breeze conditions. Seas remain below 8 ft across the Atlantic waters. The cold front over the west Atlantic will move across the waters N of 28N through Sun. Weak low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will track NE across south Florida into the Bahamas Sun through Mon enhancing winds and generating numerous showers and thunderstorms. The low will move N of the area Mon night, while dragging a cold front across the forecast waters. The front will move E of the area by Wed night. $$ ERA