000 AXNT20 KNHC 091736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1230 PM EDT Sat May 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 03N24W. The ITCZ extends from 03N24W to 00N38W to 00N50W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 02N-09N between 09W- 22W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 300 nm of the ITCZ between 32W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Cedar Key Florida to 28N93W to 26N96W, then transitions to a stationary front from 26N96W to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W and inland to beyond 25N101W. As of 1500 UTC, a weak 1014 low is analyzed along the front near 25N96W. Numerous strong convection is over the southwest Gulf of Mexico from 19N-24N between 93.5W-96.5W. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere inside the points bounded by 29N96W to 29N90W to 25N92W to 23N86W to 19N97W to 29N96W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong NE winds over the northern Gulf, north of the cold front and northwest of the surface low near the Texas coast. An area of strong winds are also seen off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SE Gulf, as an E-W surface ridge is seen extending along 25N from 73W-88W. The cold front will move S to the central Gulf waters later today and gradually stall through Sun. The weak low pressure over the SW Gulf will track east-northeastward toward South Florida on Sun. The stalled front will then transition back to a cold front and exit the southeastern Gulf on Mon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact most of the southern and eastern Gulf waters through the rest of this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid- to upper-level ridging prevails over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture over the western Caribbean. A weak surface trough over Cuba is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms north of 20N between 77W-88W. Farther south, troughing extending from the east Pacific over Central America is inducing scattered showers and tstorms from the eastern coast of Honduras to Panama, and extending out offshore to 60 nm from the Caribbean coast of Central America. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong trades between 67W-75W, with fresh trades elsewhere from 10.5N-18N between 63W-79W. Moderate winds are seen elsewhere. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds over most of the remainder of the basin through Sun night. The aerial extent of the strong trades will diminish and will be confined to the south-central Caribbean through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has entered the waters east of northern Florida and extends from 32N75W to Daytona Beach Florida to the western Gulf of Mexico. Fresh winds prevail on both sides of the cold front north of 28N between 69W-81W. Strong winds are north of 30N. Only isolated showers are noted with this front. The front will move across the waters N of the Bahamas through Sun. A cold front extends from 32N46W to 28N52W to 25.5N61W. It continues WSW as a stationary front from 25.5N61W to the Bahamas near 23N75W. A surface trough is analyzed from 23N75W across Cuba to 21N83W. Scattered moderate convection is seen over portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas from 22N-24N between 72.5W-76W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere within 60 nm of the surface trough and stationary front. Isolated showers are along the cold front. A 1025 mb high is centered near 29N37W. A weak surface trough extends across the Canary Islands from 31N14W to 25N23W with isolated showers. Weak low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will track ENE across South Florida into the Bahamas Sun through Mon night, enhancing winds and generating numerous showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the low, a cold front will move across the waters east of Florida and the northern Bahamas through Mon night, then stall from near 29N65W to central Cuba late Tue. $$ Hagen