000
AXNT20 KNHC 091031
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT Sat May 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 03N24W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N24W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted from 01N to 07N between 15W and 20W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 270
NM N of the ITCZ between 24W and 47W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to N Mexico.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
60 NM E of the front between 89W and 92W, and within 120 NM S of
the front W of 95W. Fresh to strong winds prevail W of the front,
light to gentle winds elsewhere N of 25N and gentle to moderate
winds S of 25N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range W of the front, 405
ft over the rest of the western Gulf, and 2-3 ft over the eastern
Gulf.  

The cold front will move to the central Gulf waters today and 
gradually stall through Sun. An area of low pressure is expected 
to develop over the SW Gulf today, and track east- northeastward 
toward South Florida on Sun. The stalled front will then 
transition back to a cold front and exit the southeastern Gulf on 
Mon. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will impact most
of the southern and eastern Gulf waters this weekend. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean, moderate
to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate
winds over the western Caribbean. Isolated showers are embedded
within the tradewind flow. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over the
central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft
over the western Caribbean. 

High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade 
winds in the central Caribbean Sea through the weekend, with 
moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean and gentle to
moderate winds over the western Caribbean. The aerial extent of 
the trade winds will diminish early next week through the middle 
of next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N51W to 25N63W, then stationary to 
the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is within 240 nm E of the front N of 26N. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection was also noted N of the coast of Cuba 
to the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the 
waters off N Florida ahead of a cold front over the SE United 
States. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N. 
Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail S of 20N. Isolated tradewinds
are embedded within the tradewind flow. N of 20N, seas are in the
4-6 ft range over much of the open waters, except within 120 nm E
of the cold front N of 27N where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. W 
of the Bahamas, seas are in the 1-3 ft range. S of 20N, seas are 
in the 6-7 ft range. 

The cold front from 31N51W to 25N63W will slowly shift E while
weakening. The front will dissipate this weekend. Another cold 
front will move off northern Florida this morning, moving across 
the waters north of 29N through Sun. Weak low pressure in the Gulf
of Mexico will track across south Florida into the Bahamas Sun 
through Mon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact the 
waters over most of the western half of the area Sun into early 
next week. In the wake of the low, a cold front will move across 
the northern and central waters through Mon night, then stall from
near 29N65W to central Cuba late Tue. 

$$
AL