000
AXNT20 KNHC 082223
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 PM EDT Fri May 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W 
to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 03N35W to the coast
of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 10W and 19W, from 02N
to 08N between 19W and 30W, and within 180 nm N of the ITCZ
between 31W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure ridging extends from a weak 1018 mb high 
over western Georgia to the central Gulf of Mexico. Fair skies 
and dry weather prevail over much of the basin, while vigorous
thunderstorm activity is noted inland from the upper Texas coast
to across Louisiana. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to 
strong southerly winds in the Texas coastal waters, with moderate
to locally fresh winds elsewhere across the basin.

The high pressure will retreat eastward, enabling a cold front to
move into the northern Gulf tonight. The front will move to the
central Gulf waters Sat and gradually stall through Sun. An area 
of low pressure is expected to develop along or near the western 
part of the front over the SW Gulf on Sat, and track east- 
northeastward toward South Florida on Sun. Fresh to strong east 
winds will develop north of the front over the southern half of 
the central Gulf late Sat into Sun. The stalled front will then 
transition back to a cold front and exit the southeastern Gulf 
early on Mon. 

In the wake of front, fresh northeast winds are expected over the
eastern and central Gulf waters Sun night through Mon night, 
veering to the east Tue through Wed. Unsettled weather in the form
of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will impact most 
of the southern and eastern Gulf waters Sat through Sun. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-to-upper level anticyclonic flow covers the Caribbean. The 
latest TPW imagery shows increased moisture over the western
Caribbean from the tropical east Pacific. Scattered thunderstorms
are noted over the SW Caribbean and adjacent land areas, and in
the NW Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated
thunderstorms are also noted over northern Jamaica and portions of
eastern Cuba where the remnants of an old frontal boundary are.
Additional thunderstorm activity is noted over northern Colombia
and far NW Venezuela. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to
strong trades in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere.
 
High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade 
winds in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds 
over most of the remainder of the basin through Sat. The aerial 
extent of the trades will increase slightly Sat into Sun, then 
diminish well into the middle of next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N55W to 22N70W, continuing as a
weakening stationary front over the Turks and Caicos to eastern
Cuba. Scattered thunderstorms are noted N of 26N within 180-240 nm
ahead of the front. Isolated thunderstorms are noted over 
northern Hispaniola with the aid of daytime heating, and in 
eastern Cuba where the decaying boundary is. Earlier scatterometer
data showed moderate to fresh winds on either side in the vicinity
of the front outside of any convection, with gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow noted from the northern Bahamas northward due to
weak high pressure ridging along and north of 30N/31N. To the 
east, a 1023 mb surface high near 29N39W extends a surface ridge 
to 23N62W. A cold front extends from near Madeira to 24N30W.
Isolated to scattered showers are noted within 120 nm ahead of the
front.

The cold front extending over the southwest-north Atlantic will 
stall tonight. Another cold front is forecast to move off 
northern Florida Sat morning. The front will move across the 
waters north of 29N through Sun. Weak low pressure is expected to 
develop over the Gulf of Mexico, and track northeastward across 
south Florida into the Bahamas Sun through Mon. Numerous showers 
and thunderstorms will impact the waters over most of the western 
half of the area Sun into early next week. In the wake of the low,
a cold front will move across the northern and central waters 
through Mon night, then reach from near 29N65W to 26N70W and stall
to the central Cuba late Tue. The stall part of the front will 
then lift back to the north as a warm front Wed and Wed night, 
while the cold front part becomes stationary.

$$
Lewitsky/JA